There is glaring disagreement between the ministry of finance and World Bank (WB) over the debt repayment obligation for the financial year 2017-18. In a recent report the WP has estimated Pakistan’s external repayment obligation at $ 31 billion which raised the public concern that the country may have not enough resources to meet these targets because of the nosedive of the economy. The finance ministry, however, claimed the WB erroneously included the portfolio investment of $ 13.8 billion for its estimates that are not a part of repayment obligation. The finance ministry insists that WB report is based on “misinterpretation” of standard definition on gross financing needs of the country. In a bid to suppress the ongoing controversy about the health of the economy the finance minister Ishaq Dar has directed the finance division to proactively work with the WB to ensure correct reporting of economic data.
The pulse rate of the economy is better understood by the business community and their numbers about the performance of various sectors of the national economy including foreign trade which reflect a grim scenario. They have spoken their mind in a recent seminar under the auspices of Pakistan Federation of Commerce and Industry at Karachi. COAS addressed this seminar and expressed his views about the correlation between security and economy. The businessmen of industrial hub of Karachi also met the PM Shahid Khaqan Abbasi register their concerns about the acute depression of the economy and likely IMF bailout package that other day. PM told them that Pakistan will not opt for any IMF package. WB and IMF prior to their recent meeting painted a very bleak picture of Pakistan’s economy in a comprehensive report on the South Asian Economies. The report has vividly projected the macro-economic risks confronting our economy and particularly annotated the vulnerability of external balance. It also revealed that persistent current account deficits which are on the rise will badly affect the Forex (Foreign Exchange Reserves).
The economy is on the ventilator of international donors since the end of Musharraf era. Two IMF loan packages with strict conditionality have already been availed. But the IMF shock therapy has not worked and the downturn of economy continues till date. Another IMF loan program has become inevitable for the budgetary support in the coming financial year and correcting the balance of payment in the international trade. Hence, the numbers released by the WB is unquestionably authentic whereas, the data worked out by the ‘Baboos’ of finance ministry under the directives of Ishaq Dar is incorrect without a doubt. It is now a matter of record that the finance minister during the second tenure of PML (N) provided fudged figure to IMF and other multilateral donors. Consequently, the advisor on finance Dr. Salman Shah informed general Musharrraf about the grave repercussions of this forgery. President Musharraf told him that we must accept the misdeeds of PML (N) government and inform the IMF about the objectivity of the economic statistics in future. The advisor convinced that IMF and other donor of transparency of reporting of economic data. The IMF then imposed a penalty of 100 million dollars for fudging of figures, which was then reduced to mere 10 million dollars on the persistent persuasion of Dr. Salman Shah. It seems that Ishaq Dar has yet again reverted to his old practice of manipulation of economic data. But this time around the technocrats of WB, IMF and other international donor will not entertain his version of the Pakistan’s economy. It is no longer a secret that the WB and IMF officials declined to receive the finance minister at their recent meeting and the government has to send Interior Minister Ashan Iqbal to attend this meeting. The government must accept the ground realities and take the people into confidence about the precarious economic conditions ultimately preparing them for the hard days to come.
