Andrey Kirillov
Dintaifun, a Beijing chain restaurant serving Chinese dishes with “Taiwanese flair”, is, as usual, crowded in the evenings. At the next table, a group of local businessmen with noisy animation greets another bottle of 58-degree gaolian baijiu, on the label of which the geographic location of the strong drink – Kinmen – is indicated in the Taiwanese way. In mainland Chinese transcription, this name would be written as Jinmen. It seems like one letter, and the translation of the name of the rock blown by all the winds in the Taiwan Strait, whatever one may say, is the same – the Golden Gate, but the difference is big.
Taiwanese, even in such seemingly trifles, defend their independence. The largest Chinese island has been ruled by its own administration since 1949, when the remnants of the Kuomintang (conservative political party) forces led by Chiang Kai-shek fled there after being defeated in the civil war. Since then, the flag and some other attributes of the former Republic of China, which existed on the mainland before the communists came to power, have been preserved there. In addition to the island of Taiwan itself, the successors of the late Generalissimo keep a few more pieces of land, including the one on which they make a 58-degree drink. Long-range artillery batteries were located on the Golden Gate, from wh-ich the Kuomintang fired at their mainland opponents back in the 1950s.
Today in the Taiwan Strait, which separates the islanders from the rest of China, winds are so cold that even the strongest gaolyanovka probably won’t save.
“One China” or “mainland aggressor”
“The situation in the Tai-wan Strait zone has recently been extremely tense after the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force sent a record number of fighters into the airspace adjacent to the island during the celebration of the Day of the People’s Liberation of China (national holiday – October 1) – as a reminder to the separatists,” – writes China Daily, an English-language newspaper that brings Beijing’s official point of view to the outside world.
Yet a few years ago, close economic and political contacts developed between mainland China and Taiwan. They were initiated from the side of the island by the political heirs of Chiang Kai-shek. The main thing for the Kuomintang party, which allowed it in the past to come to terms with the CPC at the very least, is its adherence to the idea of “one China,” albeit under different flags. On this postulate the so-called consensus of 1992 was built, when the representatives of the sides solemnly acknowledged that the shores of the Taiwan Strait dividing them are not “separate states.” On this generally reconciling basis, it was possible to gradually restore both exchanges between people, and postal and telegraph communications, and trade and economic relations. By the way, Taiwanese restaurants Dintaifun also opened in Beijing and Shanghai on the crest of this warming wave.
Beijing now blames the administration of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which unites supporters of Taiwan’s “independence”, for everything that came to power on the island. This is a predominantly young Taiwa-nese (already in the third or fourth generation) population of the separated territory, which does not torment at night nostalgia for the native provinces of Fujian or Zhejiang, for Beijing H-utong alleyways or Shang-hai shikumen – old buildings. The adherents of the DPP are also patriots in th-eir own way, but with a strong insular flavor, they no longer hear “tuhua” in their speech – the words of various Chinese dialects th-at are supplanted by the En-glish-language vocabulary.
“Rather than disassociating itself from the dangerous drive for independence in the face of repeated warnings from Beijing, the DPP administration is trying to portray mainland China as an aggressor and a threat to peace and stability across the strait,” writes China Daily. “This is because, – continues the publication, – they cannot see the growing strength of the mainland and the consolidation of conditions for the reunification of Taiwan with the motherland.”
American intervention
There is, according to Peking observers, another significant factor in the strengthening of separatist fads on the island – the American one. For Washington, the escalation of tensions in the Taiwan Strait is almost the main instrument of general pressure on Beijing, which can be seen both behind the creation of AUKUS (a partnership between the United States, Great Britain and Australia) of a new military bloc in the Pacific, and for the rapprochement of India, Australia, the United States and Japan in the Quad (Quadripartite Security Dialogue), although New Delhi is trying toto talk ab-out their “caution” regarding the militarization of this format. However, the Ch-inese still see Was-hingto-n’s “hand” behind the activation of the Indian army on the Ladakh glaciers. India is trying to capitalize on China’s plunge into “ser-ious confrontation” with the US, says Lin Minwang, professor at the Institute for International Studies at Fudan University. “She bel-ieves that Washington atta-ches great importance to N-ew Delhi, since US Pres-ident Joe Biden often contacted the Indian leadership after he came to power, jointly discussing plans to curb Chinese growth,” the expert notes. The Chinese media are increasingly writing about China’s readiness to “repel the new aggression of India.”
The Wall Street Journal, meanwhile, reported, citing unnamed sources, that an American special forces unit, as well as marines, has been in Taiwan for about a year. They allegedly train Taiwanese special forces to strengthen the island’s defenses. Even if there are few American specialists (either 20 or 22, the exact number is not so important), the leak about their stay on the island is deliberate – to provoke the wrath of Beijing, to pull the dragon by the mustache once again. True, the Pentagon spokesman did not confirm the message, while stating that Washington’s support for the Taipei administration was directed against the threat from mainland China.
“Historical challenge”
Encouraged by the support of the United States, the head of the administration of the island Tsai Ing-wen, meanwhile, clarified that Taiwan, they say, “will not bow its head” to pressure from mainland China, but will uphold the status quo in the region and continue to strengthen its defenses. Ms. President said this when speaking in Taipei on the occasion of the national holiday – Day of two dozen (tenth day of the tenth month).
At the same time, Presi-dent of the People’s Repu-blic of China Xi Jinping made a speech at a solemn meeting on the occasion of the 110th anniversary of the Xinhai Revolution. “The Taiwan issue is exclusively China’s internal affair, no external interference is permissible,” he said.
“Taiwan’s secessionist authorities continue to seek support, including military support, from the United S-tates to thwart China’s nati-onal reunification, which confirms that mainland C-hina’s message of goodwill to Taiwanese compatriots, as well as a serious warning to the island’s authorities, are being ignored,” writes Beijing-based Huanqiu shibao. Observers, the newspaper notes, call the position of the separatists “the last madness” before their judgment day, and hopes for a peaceful solution to the Taiwan problem “sharply diminished.”
In this situation, the head of Russian diplomacy Sergei Lavrov at the forum in Nur-Sultan (Kazakhstan) reaffirmed the clear position of the Russian Federation on the Taiwan issue. “Russia, like the overwhelming majority of other countries in the world, considers Taiwan to be part of the PRC. We proceed from this and will proceed from this in our policy,” the minister said.
“No one should underestimate the strong determination, unshakable will and great ability of the Chinese people to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Xi Jinping warned. “The historic task of reuniting the homeland must be accomplished, and it can be accomplished,” the leader concluded.
Military analysts believe mainland China will be able to fully prepare for the country’s reunification sometime by 2024–2025 by completing the construction of several large amphibious assault ships. Beijing already has its own aircraft carriers capable of “locking” the Taiwan Strait from both ends if necessary.
But will mainland China go to such extreme measures in the name of the truly great goal of uniting the homeland? A foreign expert, who asked not to be named, expressed the opinion that this is extremely unlikely in the near future. “This situation should mature on its own, and now it has no prerequisites for this. In the end, the power in Taiwan may change, and in the Taiwan Strait it will get warmer again,” he said.
So, you can take a breath and raise a glass of that 58-degree glass for peace in the strait?
