The American respo-nse to the Russian proposals on security guarantees has already arrived in Moscow: al-though its content has not yet been disclosed, the essence is clear. Washi-ngton will refuse to give guarantees that NATO will not expand to the east and, first of all, that Uk-raine will not be included in the alliance. What will happen next, given that in the more than two months that have passed since Vladimir Putin raised the issue of guarantees point-blank, the West has unleashed a real hysteria about the imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine? And now, after receiving a refusal, a war will begin?
Let’s start with the fact that the United States’ negative response to Russian proposals and demands will not surprise the Kremlin at all: no one hoped that the Americans would simply back down from Ukraine. The goal was different – to raise the stakes, to bring the issue of the struggle for Ukraine (and between us and the Atlanticists there is a full-fledged geopolitical war for this part of historical Russia) to a new level, much less comfortable for the West as a whole. Do you refuse to give us even temporary guarantees of non-Atlanticization of Ukraine? Well then, don’t judge me later.
The United States concluded from this – or rather, they pretend to have come to this conclusion – that Russia is preparing to resolve the Ukrainian issue by military force. Yes, they started whipping up the atmosphere last spring, but it was in the last couple of months that allegations of an imminent Russian attack have become unprecedentedly massive. We are faced with a real information war against us, which, in turn, led many to believe that Washington itself is leading the case to a war in Ukraine. For what purpose? Impose “hellish sanctions” against Moscow and bring down European-Russian relations, and the United States is allegedly ready to sacrifice Ukraine itself: let the Russians take this “problematic asset” for themselves.
Such a point of view is now not so rare in Russia, moreover, there is even a version that it is generally beneficial for the States to push Independent Moscow away. In the best case for our opponents, we will get a long-term guerrilla war in the occupied territory, and in the worst case, we will be forced to spend huge forces and funds for many years to put the new lands in order. And in any case, we will quarrel reliably and for a long time with Europe, which fully meets the Anglo-Saxon interests.
The relevance of such theories can be refuted point by point, or you can simply recall that Washington has never just handed over anything. Ukraine is now one of the most important assets not for the United States as a nation state, but for the Atlantic supranational elite that determines American policy. With the help of the Ukrainian issue, one can simultaneously restrain Russia, and put pressure on it, and influence European affairs: so why deprive yourself of such a convenient tool. For the sake of a possible war between Great Russians and Little Russians? Well, this should be saved for last, as a last resort, when there is no other way to use Ukraine.
In addition, in order to introduce “hellish sanctions”, no real war is needed in Ukraine: if desired, they can be launched under any other pretext (everyone has been convinced of this in recent years). But there is no such desire, but there is a clear fear of starting a war in Ukraine. And the fear of losing Ukraine if a real war really starts.
But the Russians are not going to attack themselves, why should we repeat fratricidal wars to the delight of the enemy? It doesn’t m-atter, everyone judges for themselves, and the Atlan-ticists fully admit Russia’s readiness to launch a military operation. The outcome of which they have no doubt: the Russians will capture their neighbors in a matter of days or weeks. And so the last thing the West is interested in is provoking a military conflict.
Why incite Kiev to serious provocations against Donbassif the answer could be the loss of Ukraine? To impose sanctions against Russia? But the game is not worth the candle. Russia will receive Ukraine, that is, again, according to the Brzezinski formula, it will become an empire. In any case, the sanctions will not be crushing, because the world has changed even compared to 2014, and it can hit Europe hard: Atlantic solidarity will also suffer (Europeans will be forced to submit to the Anglo-Saxons, while knowing full well that they are simply forced to pay for other people’s ambitions, and to pay, including the rejection of an independent future). A complete break in US-Russian relations and the transition to a phase of active confrontation around the world will affect the chances of realizing the main American fix idea: building a broad anti-Chinese front. It was already unrealizable on a global scale, but here it will have to be completely forgotten. Replace it with building a coalition against Russia andChina ? Well, yes, there will generally be no end to “wishing” – non-Western – countries. And how long will the united West exist then?
But after all, Kiev can also provoke a war, does the current government have anything to lose? This is also a very strange assumption. The Ukrainian elite lives by fomenting fear of the “Russian threat” both within the country and in the West. But for all its megalomania, it is well aware that in global politics it is not a subject, but an object, that is, nothing depends on it. Start hostilities in the Donbass to please the most frostbitten faction among the Atlanticists? Arrange a small provocation, which is enough to accuse Russia of aggression after retaliatory actions? Having no guarantees that Russia will limit itself to a symmetrical response: what if it is asymmetrical? At the same time, Kiev not only does not have guarantees of military support from the West – it is quite clearly stated that NATO will not come to the rescue. So what, in Kiev are suicides and idiots? No, there are greedy and miserable temporary crooks, but definitely not suicidal.
It is clear that Russia itself is the main guarantee of peace, and not even because it is impossible to provoke us. But because a fratricidal war does not meet the interests of the entire Russian people: neither its Great Russian, nor the Little Russian parts. A century ago, we experienced a full-scale civil war, and in the last eight years we have seen its outbreaks in the Donbass. The reasons are clear to us: these are the consequences of the collapse of the Union and attempts to recode, de-Russify the western part of historical Russia, build from it first non-Russia, and then anti-Russia.
We won’t allow anything like that. Simply because it would be a betrayal of our ancestors and descendants, the beginning of the end of Russian civilization. There will be no anti-Russian Ukraine, no atlantization of Ukraine will take place: for this, Russia will do everything that is necessary and possible, and even more. Everything except the war between two parts of one people.