In what order did the Politburo members lined up this time in their almost identical hats on the podium of the Mausoleum – what does this mean in terms of the alignment of forces in the leadership in Moscow ? For decades, Sovietologists publicly wondered on this topic and tortured their audience with complex reflections. Now, exactly the same thing is happening with regard to China . The plenum of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, which is held this week, according to countless Sinologists, should confirm Xi Jinping’s rule even more definitively than before . Why a special historic resolution was introduced at the plenum about the meaning of the entire hundred-year history of the party.
So, all this, of course, is important and interesting, but there are questions that are even more important than the subtleties of the official perception by the Chinese of their history and even than the personalities of those who run the country. For comparison: in some 1981, one could ask questions about whether the USSR is facing a cardinal turn in terms of the economic model and permanent global competition in competitiveness, or something completely different will begin to happen to this country in the near future?
One of the authors of the Bloomberg agency formulates the immediate and short-term price of the issue only and exclusively for investors as follows: “the most important person in China is on a mission to redistribute the wealth of the nation to create a more just Marxist society. This campaign of shared prosperity in July has already licked about one trillion dollars around the world with the value of Chinese stocks and influenced the business of one and all … “
Or you can put it this way (this is already the Chinese edition of the Global Times): in recent years, the country “successfully coped with the pandemic, dealt with a series of US provocations in trade, geopolitics and high-tech, while observing the weak performance of the largest Western countries in their attempts to cope with global challenges and internal problems “. Conclusion: we need to move on.
It is clear that Xi Jinping and other leaders of the country are not at all busy creating some kind of “Marxist society” simply because they want to. Their task is more realistic, it is enormous: to lead the country between the third world war and the world revolution, and knowing that in such historical transitions, success is not guaranteed to anyone. And in any case, we are talking about forced changes of a huge scale, which are caused by the collision of many factors: these are the convulsions of the West, and the fact that the Chinese economy has grown to such a size when it needs to be re-adjusted to the world economy.
Obviously, in such a situation, the stability of the country’s leadership is nee-ded. So it may well go (at the next party congress next year) about a third term for Xi Jinping or anything else. But today, as government has become a high-speed c-ross-country race, the leaders of this (and every other) country are required to ha-ve the right combination of caution and audacity. And on this topic in the world media one can find really s-erious attempts to determi-ne what is happening in China. For example, the Brazilian professor (and a person of noticeably leftist convictions) Elias Zhabour writes about the ” three transitions ” of China: in the energy sector (the ideas of the Beijing leadership to get away from coal and other “old” resources were clearly defeated, causing a shortage of electricity), the return of public property in areas such as real estate or education (by the way, this is the same story when investors were missing a trillion dollars). Finally, there is the “productivity revolution” brought about by changes in technology.
Well, you could say that – at least, the scale of the necessary and already ongoing changes is visible. But in any case, it is now interesting to follow Beij-ing’s behavior on several subjects, while – we repeat – no one guaranteed success to him or anyone else.
So, for example (this is an assessment of a specialized investor publication), the plot with China’s own semiconductor base is very important. Such a goal has been set by the leadership, but it is still far from reaching it. If it works out, then the already obvious technological gap from the United States will turn out to be confident and incorrigible in the foreseeable future. B-y the way, last year the Ch-inese registered 2.5 times more patents for inventions (any, not only in semiconductors) than the United States. The count in pieces, of course, is not an indicator, but still a good fact.
Further, there is another acute topic that can bring big problems: this is the su-rge in the incidence of cor-onavirus that came to light just in time for the plenum. The fact is that the Chinese leadership is immoderately proud of the fact that it “defeated the pandemic” in one single country with the help of the “Zero Covid” strategy. Several other As-ian countries tried to imitate this strategy . But today they are changing course, and even in China itself a discussion has begun on these topics, since the virus cannot be zero. For Beijing, it was a demonstration of organizational and technological abilities plus the mobilization readiness of society; it hastened to proclaim victory last year, but now it will obviously have to be flexible and admit that it was too early to rejoice. Well, the country, of course, will not be able to live and work in the midst of total quarantine.
Another plot should show whether the United States or the West as a whole have any prospects for “economically divorcing” China and its partners, again reducing the world picture to a competition between the two systems. The fact that from January 1, will earn the biggest free trade zone in the world – RCEP, or Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (VREP). It was organized by China jointly with six out of ten ASEAN countries, as well as Japan , South Korea , Australia and New Zealand…. It is expected that this thing will raise the region’s GDP by almost one percent at once, and for, say, Japan, almost all trade with China will be duty-free. Such advantages are not denied. So it remains to be seen who and in what forms will “file for divorce” with those trying to contain China.
On the whole, a truly global transition from the former world to the future lies ahead, and the current plenum of the CPC Central Committee is an interesting, but not the most important part of the path for some people.