Andrew Freedman
A new assessment of tipping points within the climate system concludes that far more stringent emissions cuts are needed, compared to the most ambitious current plans.
Why it matters: The new study, published Friday in Science, finds tipping points lurking much closer to the present level of warming, and that the Paris Agreement’s most stringent warming target of 1.5°C compared to preindustrial levels could trigger four of them.
Context: The study defines a tipping point as when changes in a large part of the climate become self-perpetuating. Not every tipping point immediately affects the planet, and some are only felt regionally.
The big picture: The new study is a more complete but sobering read compared to a similar paper published in 2008, since it adds new tipping points to the list and concludes that at least four of them, including the abrupt thawing of permanently frozen soil that rings the Arctic, are likely to be set off at 1.5°C of warming.
Zoom in: The researchers put forward the idea of a tipping point early warning system, which could combine remote sensing, such as satellite measurements, with computer modeling and deep learning techniques.
What they’re saying: “Since I first assessed climate tipping points in 2008 the list has grown and our assessment of the risk they pose has increased dramatically,” said study co-author Tim Lenton, of the University of Exeter, in a statement.
What’s next: Scientists will discuss the new work and more today through Wednesday at a three-day conference at the University of Exeter.
The bottom line: In the 20 years since the first tipping points assessment came out, some have become nearly inevitable.
Courtesy: (Axios)
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