Hussnain Abbas
Pakistan’s strategic location is a blessing as well as a curse for the country. Pakistan has always gotten involved in regional conflicts in one way or the other. Sometimes we had to be a part of a contention but most of the time we threw ourselves in the quagmire by choice. It will be difficult for Pakistan to keep itself aloof from regional conflagration if it takes place in the near future.
We still haven’t washed the remnants of almost two decade long Afghan war but Ominous clouds of another regional mire are hovering. Consequences of the Afghan war are disastrous for Pakistan, it has lost almost 70 thousand of its citizens and in terms of financial loss, it is in the billions. Societal norms of our culture have been changed, for instance gun violence, drug culture and sectarianism were brought to urban areas. Pakistan cannot afford another war theater in its neighbourhood. Two weeks ago, the US and Iran were on the brink of war. The Iranian rocket attack on the American base in Iraq was a retaliation of the assisinaton of Qasim Solamani, second most powerful person in Iran. Pakistnai leadership has been trying to mitigate the tension between Iran and the USA as Prime Minister Imran Khan was asked by President Donald Trump for mediation and PM Khan did, but failed.
So far, Pakistan has been keeping itself at a distance but it looks improbable if Iran and the US get involved in direct conflict because of its financial restraints. Pakistan indebted to IMF which is under the influence of America, so that it could be used to undermine Pakistan financial position. Arab Muslim countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE are considered arch rivals of Iran, that could ask Pakistan to shun its neutaility and we have observed this recently when KSA stopped Pakistan from participation at the Conference in Malysia. Pakistan had to act at the discretion of KSA as it was reported that KSA threatened they would kick out two million Pakistani employees working in Saudi Arabia. Moreover, it was said that KSA would withdraw its 6 billion dollars from State Bank which could further cripple our doldrums economy. Similarly, if Pakistan continues its nonalignment, Pakistan could be deprived of their support on Kashmir.
Pakistan does have some cards in its hands as well that can be used if it is necessary. United States is tired of the Afghan war and wants to withdraw as soon as possible. They have not acquired expected results despite investing trillions of dollars, for that purpose they need Pakistan to bring Taliban on the negotiation table and Pakistan is already playing a vital role which is being appreciated at all levels. By capitalizing this position, Pakistan could ask the US not to mount unnecessary pressure on it, to end impartiality regarding US-Iran tension, if it does not happen Pakistan would review its cooperation in Afghanistan with the US. In the same way, Pakistan could tackle KSA pressure to somewhat as we all know that Pakistan has been offering unconditional military support to KSA and vowed to protect Saudi Arabia against any foreign aggression for example a former COAS Gen(R) Raheel Sharif is heading coalition forces in KSA. So, Pakistan could use this as a bargaining tool.
As far as Pakistani workers are concerned, they are known the best hard workers in Arabian peninsula and it would not be an easy choice to find their alternatives quickly.
Beside foreign pressure, Pakistan should not forget a sectarian factor inside the country while formulating any policy.
Game of proxies is a very lethal and we have been the victim of this strategy. Middle Eastern states used proxies for their own interests. As we know that, Pakistan is a home of third largest population of Shittee Muslim that could trigger unimaginable unrest if Pakistan goes in any camp against Iran. Sectarian issue has been very delicate and fragile in Pakistan. Even in 2019, when menace of terrorism was about to be uprooted, there were 14 sectarian related attacks were condutced. Pakistan kept its neutral posture when it was asked to send troops in Yemen although that made KSA and other Arab allies annoyed but Pakistan tried to engulf the chasm by issuing NOC to its former COAS to become a Head of Coalition forces in KSA.
Pakistan has been playing very balanced role in this situation. PM Imran Khan while addressing World Economic Forum 2020 categorically said that Pakistan would not be a part of any conflict, it would support only peace that is a clear message to all stakeholders.
Arguably, despite seeing the economic situation of Pakistan, it would not be an easy job for Pakistan to keep all players happy, but time demands vigilance. State should assert its power and deal with iron hands with all those groups which try to exploit the such kind of situation.
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