Egypt’s headline inflation rate increased to 32.7% in March

CAIRO (Reuters): Egypt’s annual urban consumer inflation rate in March climbed to 32.7 percent year-on-year, just shy of an all-time record, from 31.9 percent in February, data from the country’s statistics agency CAPMAS showed on Monday.

The surging inflation rate follows a series of currency devaluations starting in March 2022, a prolonged shortage of foreign currency and continuing delays in getting imports into the country.

Egypt, which secured a $3 billion financial support package from the International Monetary Fund in December, has devalued its currency by half since March 2022 after fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine exposed vulnerabilities in Egypt’s economy.

The median forecast of 13 analysts polled showed annual urban consumer inflation rising to 33.6 percent in March.

Egypt’s highest inflation rate ever was 32.952 percent, reached in July 2017, eight months after Egypt devalued its currency by half as part of a previous $12 billion IMF support package.

The core inflation rate, which excludes fuel and some volatile food items, is expected to be released later on Monday. The median of the analysts’ forecasts expect that to climb to a record 42.25 percent from February’s 40.26 percent, the current record.

Treasury bills sales climb 

Meanwhile, sales of 273- and 91-day Egyptian treasury bills at an auction on Sunday climbed from last week’s low after the finance ministry paid record high yields to partly reflect a 200-basis-point hike in central bank overnight interest rates on March 30.

Investors have sought higher yields to match the increased central bank rates and on the expectation the currency will continue to weaken after having lost half its value against the dollar over the last year, analysts say.

The finance ministry has struggled to keep its budget deficit from widening as it was forced to pay increasingly high interest rates on its large stock of debt.

The average yield on 273-day bills edged up to 23.341 percent from 23.059 percent last week, with both figures exceeding a record 22.444 percent reached on July 11, 2017.

The central bank only accepted 76 bids worth 5.58 billion Egyptian pounds ($181 million) for the 273-day bills out of the 203 bids worth 32.66 billion pounds it received. Last week it accepted bids worth a mere 79.38 million pounds.

The average yield on 91-day bills climbed to 21.297 percent from 20.924 percent last week. This was still shy of a record 22.523 percent average yield paid on July 11, 2017.

The central bank only accepted 239 bids worth 4.47 billion Egyptian pounds for the 91-day bills out of the 519 bids worth 58.55 billion pounds it received. Last week it only accepted bids worth 324.1 million pounds.