Getting rid of International Monetary Fund

Ghulam Idris Khan

World has celebrated Environment Day on 5th June, a seminar was held in Islamabad in this regard in which government minster’s focus was plastic consumption in our daily life, whereas in Pakistan major victim is Agriculture sector.

Last year monsoon rains followed by floods wreaked havoc on life and properties of farming communities, standing crops were wiped out, buildings were collapsed. Due to standing water which did not recede after flood, wheat winter sowing was not possible in some parts of Sindh. It was estimated that about 30 Billion USD is needed in damages caused by this flood.

During an international donor’s conference, a number of countries has committed pledges in presence of Foreign Minster Bilawal Bhutto Zardari and Prime Minister Shahbaz sharif. The theme of Environment Day in Pakistan should have been ” Food Security and Climate Change ‘‘The agriculture sector is most vulnerable to climate change. These untimely rains and floods are the product of climate change which devastated our rural economy. Pakistan sits quite low on the list of carbon emission countries but is ranked no eight in top ten countries of the world which are prone to climate change due our geographical location in the planet.

Now the question is how to face it and convert it in to Fortune. To reduce the impact of climate change, forestation and reforestation campaign be undertaken on urgent basis in mountain and sub mountains areas. These areas have suffered severe deforestation due to unavailability of natural gas and electricity.

The on ground reality of ”Billion Tree Tsunami” launched by PTI led Government in 2014 at a cost of Rs 14334.7 Million may also be examined. With increase in temperature, melting of glacier flash floods coupled with torrential rains have devastated most vulnerable segment of society. This flood water needed to be stored for which small dam or check dams are needed to be built in the Koh-Suleiman mountain range of Balochistan and part of South Punjab. By doing so Sindh and area of DG Khan can be saved.

The rain water can be used for cropping for production of more wheat, cotton and sunflower. Pakistan treasury which is dried up of foreign exchange and we are roaming in world to secure dollars. Furthermore, the government of Pakistan has fulfilled all desirable and undesirable requirement of International Monetary Fund (IMF) only to get 1.5-billion-dollar loan facility but still IMF till date has not executed staff level arrangement.

The food import bill of Pakistan is touching almost ten billion dollars annually which include five to six billion dollar of edible oils, wheat, tea, pluses etc. only the edible oils bills the second most after petroleum products. Last year rains also contributed in the upward trend in food import basket. Cotton not only produces lint but the by product is used as edible oil extracted from it seed and cake is used by animals as feed. Date orchard are completely destroyed in Sindh, including other Kharif crops such as sugarcane and seasonal vegetables. Soil for wheat cultivation was not in condition for sowing due to undrained water still standing in the fields.

Furthermore, government decided to import wheat in 2020 albeit the fact that once Pakistan was exporting wheat. Cotton crop provides raw material to ginning and textile industries and can be a big source of Pakistan foreign exchange.

Wheat crop cover almost major area of about 22.70 million acres and produce 27.75 million tons of wheat whereas our requirement is 30.20 million tons. As per new census survey, headcount of Pakistan is 250 million so the consumption may see an upward trend. On the other hand, Pakistan is low in per unit production as compare to leading producer on earth. Our national production is 1.2 tons where in the world it is 2.2 tons which is almost double.

The Prime minister the other day announced that we have agreed to all the International Monetary Fund (IMF) requirement which is prerequisite for staff level agreement, but yet IMF not convinced. The government of Pakistan is so desperately waiting for 1.5 billion USD tranche for Pakistan economy. To come out from IMF and other international lenders clutches,

Pakistan leadership should focus on Agriculture sector. Agriculture is the life saver of Pakistan economy and play major role in poverty reduction. Agriculture is a primary industry and provide raw material to textile, sugar, cigarettes, flour mills, solvent extraction industries of oilseed. Moreover, Agriculture is also the sources of foreign exchange such as cotton and its products, Rice, sugar, tobacco and its product to name a few.

Seventy percent of Pakistan’s population is directly and indirectly engaged in farm production. A strategy needs to be adopted to double per unit production of wheat to match it with advanced wheat producing countries. Some area should be converted to other crops like sunflower and canola, same program should be adopted for sugar cane. Per unit production can be enhanced by adopting scientific approach at farmer’s doors. About one million acres should be shifted from sugarcane to oilseed crops. Arid land in Baluchistan can be utilized for wheat production when floods or rain water race through the lands.

The water stored in Check Dams can be a new source of irrigation in flood affected area. whenever heavy rains occur, wheat, pluses can be grown on residual moisture.
If these new practices are put into action, huge foreign exchange can be saved with this strategy about two million acres be covered under sunflower and canola which will produce 2.4 million tons of sunflower and canola seed.

The solvent extraction industries which is underutilized now and are importing canola and sunflower seed to operate their units will be able to procure produce from the local farmers due to which on one hand valuable USD can be saved on the import of edible oils and on the other hand foreign exchange can be saved on the import of seed for crushing purpose can also be curtailed, same is the case with the wheat, with surplus production country will be able to again start the export of wheat. The Pakistan Oilseed Development Board (PODB), which now have the status of subordinate office of the ministry needs to be revamped and make operational.

A cell should be created with core staff for policy making, monitoring project and provincial agriculture departments should be made responsible for execution.

Government must pay attention toward agriculture sector if t wants self-sufficiency and food security. The Russia-Ukraine war has further aggravated food security worldwide. If government of the day or the one coming in power after election desire to have sustainable economy, then it must concentrate on agriculture sector which in turn will help in getting free from the shackles of IMF and be able to provide some relief to common Pakistani.

The writer is agriculture expert and retried as Managing Director Pakistan oilseed Development Board (PODB) Ministry of National Food Security and Research Govt. of Pakistan.