WASHINGTON: There are only five states where under-35 voters embrace President Trump over Joe Biden — Arkansas, Idaho, South Dakota, West Virginia and Wyoming — Margaret Talev writes from new 50-state SurveyMonkey-Tableau data for Axios.
Why it matters: These scattered red spots aren’t swing states, vividly illustrating Trump’s peril if young people were to actually turn out this year.
Trump’s path to re-election depends heavily on younger adults staying home.
The data is a warning for the Republican Party in nearly every state as it looks beyond November.
Among 640,328 likely voters surveyed nationally in multiple waves from June through this week, younger voters strongly supported Biden over Trump in most states — including Texas (59%-40%), Georgia (60%-39%) and even deep-red South Carolina (56%-43%).
The bottom line: SurveyMonkey chief research officer Jon Cohen told Axios that because younger voters are less reliable to turn out, “there is the conditional ‘if they vote.'”