Andrew Freedman
Hurricane Hilary is speeding up its approach to southern California, prompting unprecedented tropical storm warnings for Los Angeles and San Diego, and fears of “catastrophic” flooding, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Threat level: Veteran National Weather Service meteorologist David Roth wrote that the potential for a plume of 5 to 10 inches of rainfall to extend from inland areas of San Diego County northeastward into Nevada is equivalent to a Western version of Hurricanes Harvey or Florence.
State of play: As of 5 pm ET, Hurricane Hilary was packing maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, located about 640 miles south-southeast of San Diego, and was moving north-northwest at 17 mph.
Of note: The WPC’s heavy rainfall forecast discussion mentions the likelihood of localized rainfall totals of up to 10 inches.
By the numbers: Rainfall totals of between 2 to 4 inches are forecast for San Diego and LA, with more significant amounts approaching 6 to 8 inches or more falling in higher elevations and desert areas to the east.
Between the lines: Hurricane Hilary’s biggest threat to the Southwest region will be water, rather than high winds. If it does move into Southern California as a tropical storm, it would be the first such occurrence since 1939.
Yes, but: Whether it is classified as a tropical storm or post-tropical low pressure area, the threat of widespread, dangerous flooding will not diminish.
Zoom in: The heaviest rain and strongest winds are expected to arrive in southern California on Sunday morning, continuing into the night. In some places, though, rainfall loosely related to the storm has already begun, in what is referred to as a “predecessor rain event.”
Context: Human-caused climate change is leading to more frequent and intense extreme precipitation events. It is also causing tropical storms and hurricanes to produce more rainfall, as a warmer atmosphere and oceans allow these storms to carry more moisture.
Courtesy: (Axios)
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