India to help sustain commodity markets amid China slowdown

Monitoring Desk

MELBOURNE: It is a great to have an alternative in every sphere to life at individual level. Same applies to global politics and economy. Just look at India which, according to the ANZ, will help the commodities market by making up some of the demand shortfall created thanks to China’s growth slowdown.

It is estimated that India’s annual demand for oil, coal, gas, copper, aluminium and steel will witness an over 5 per cent annual increase from now till 2030 while China is going to experience a 1pc to 3 pc decline during the same period.

In a latest report, the Melbourne-based bank says India’s economic growth is likely to outpace China’s and will become the third-largest economy by the end of this decade, meaning that the South Asian nation’s demand for commodities will surge. It is going to cover more than half of China’s demand shortfall especially in the energy sector.

“India’s demand for commodities is slated to grow rapidly, supported by favourable demographics, urbanization, the expansion of manufacturing and exports and the build-up of infrastructure.”

With India already becoming the most populous country, the bank expects a 40 per cent rate of urbanization by 2030 from the current level of 35pc, resulting in an increased demand for industrial metals and energy commodities.

However, the ANZ also warned that India’s efforts aimed at decarbonisation may be frustrated by the rapidly growing energy needs as the oil and coal demand is predicted to rise at the highest rate.

The report mentions New Delhi’s focus on infrastructure development and energy transition that will automatically boost demand for steel and iron.

According to ANZ, China will continue to retain its status as a behemoth in the commodity markets, but India can still be a significant influencer.