On Dec. 3-4, NATO foreign ministers are meeting in Brussels for the first time with the new Secretary General Mark Rutte, and for the last time under the Biden administration. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will be attending the event, which will also feature the first gathering of the NATO-Ukraine Council, bringing together NATO and Ukrainian representatives at the level of foreign ministers. At the core of debates will be, as has been the case for the last two-and-a-half years, NATO’s support to Ukraine, as well as the defense posture of the alliance. Yet, hallway discussions will focus on one issue exclusively – the potential impact on the Atlantic alliance of Donald Trump’s comeback as US president.
Concerns are many among European leaders that Trump will distance himself from an alliance he has often dismissed, one that also clashes with his “America First” slogan. Documents produced by his camp in the last two years mention a “radical reorientation of the Alliance,” a “dormant NATO,” or a “two-tier alliance,” in which members that make a decent effort for their defense would get more security guarantees from the US than others that do not. The most radical scenario is a withdrawal of the US from NATO and although unlikely, this is not to be ruled out. What is almost certain, however, is renewed friction and a diminished US commitment. The issue of defense spending has been one of Trump’s recurrent critiques of European states, which he accuses of not meeting the NATO pledge of spending 2% of their gross domestic product (GDP) on defense. As of 2024, though, improvements have been noted, with 23 allies, including the UK, France, Germany, Poland, and Türkiye, having reached the threshold from the total 32. In Brussels, NATO representatives will no doubt discuss how best this can be communicated to the president-elect when he takes charge in January. Yet, the argument is increasingly made that 2% will not be enough in the face of an ever-changing security environment. Europeans may also have to shoulder more responsibilities in reinforcing the alliance’s defense posture on its Eastern flank.
It is partly with these possible talks in mind that the Biden administration has recently authorized the use of long-range ATACMS missiles on Russian territory so that Ukraine would be in a slightly better position when talks start. Not much is known about what would be offered to Russia in return for a stop to the war, but it might include suspending the pledge made to Ukraine to join NATO. As a matter of fact, this has been suggested by the forthcoming US envoy to Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, as he was writing on the issue in April 2024. Would the last NATO meeting before Trump takes office allow for important decisions to “Trump-proof” the alliance and Ukraine? This is very unlikely, as there is practically nothing that Trump could not then undo when he comes to power. On the contrary, as they meet for the last time before the second Trump term, NATO representatives are more likely to be seeking to show unity and purpose. In other words, they will aim to demonstrate that the alliance is strong and useful and that Europeans are fully playing their part so that the new US administration is less inclined to make unwanted and highly disruptive decisions.
