Mikhail Katkov
Mass protests broke out in Gorno-Badakhshan. The Tajik authorities regarded them as a terrorist attack. As part of the special operation, which lasted less than a day, the military dispersed hundreds of demonstrators. RIA Novosti dealt with the causes and possible consequences of the riots.
On May 18, Dushanbe announced the conduct of a counter-terrorist operation in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region (GB-AO, or Pamir). According to the authorities, local criminal groups, supported by international terrorist organizations, tried to “shake the foundations of the republic’s constitutional order.” In total, about 200 militants, including foreigners, operated in GBAO.
The Ministry of Internal Affairs claims that the bandits blocked two roads to the regional center of Khorog. In addition, opponents of the authorities set up barricades in several settlements in Gorno-Badakhshan. The military was thrown into the fight, in the media and social networks they talked about the use of helicopters and mortars.
Fighting in the region lasted until the evening. The security forces reported the death of an officer, and another 13 law enforcement officers were injured. On the part of the militants, the authorities counted eight dead and eleven wounded. 70 terrorists were captured. Not a single civilian was injured, the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Tajikistan stressed. Opposition information resources, in turn, claim that the protesters were killed from 11 to 30 or more. They cannot give an exact figure: the Internet and mobile communications do not work in the region.
In parallel, police in Dushanbe detained journalist and human rights activist Ulfathonim Mamadshoeva, who, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, was one of the organizers of the riots. She admitted that she posted on her website information about the upcoming protests, but she herself did not take part in them.
Meanwhile, the Pamirs are asking the UN, OSCE, EU and SCO to persuade Tajik President Emomali Rahmon to stop the repressions in Gorno-Badakhshan. The activists deny the allegations of terrorism, saying that they only want to achieve the realization of the rights that the region’s status as an autonomous region gives.
A year long story
The current unrest arose due to the events that unfolded in November 2021. Then the police killed during the arrest Gulbiddin Ziyobekov, who at the beginning of the year kidnapped an assistant prosecutor because a friend was harassed. According to one version, the girl was deported from Russia, but she wanted to return, so she asked the prosecutor’s office to issue a new passport. He allegedly offered intimacy in response. The alleged rapist was beaten, a video of his apology was posted on social networks.
The murder of Ziyobekov launched mass protests not only in Khorog, but also in Moscow. Hundreds of Pamirs gathered near the Embassy of Tajikistan in Russia, and in Khorog, a coffin with the body of the deceased was even brought to the building of the local administration. The protesters demanded that the perpetrators of his death be punished, people from GBAO be put in charge of the region, the criminal prosecution of their leaders be stopped, and so on. In response, the authorities cut off the Internet, but nevertheless entered into negotiations with the dissatisfied, and people went home.
Nevertheless, for six months none of the demands of the opposition was fulfilled. Even the Internet was returned only in mid-March. The final straw was the sentence of 27-year-old MMA fighter Chorshanbe Chorshanbiev, who lived in Russia, but through social networks criticized the attitude of the Tajik authorities towards GBAO. In Moscow, the police stopped him for speeding and sent him home, and in Dushanbe he was imprisoned for eight and a half years for calling for extremism and creating an extremist organization. Before that, 44-year-old Amriddin Alovatshoev was sentenced to 18 years. He led the Pamir community in Russia and actively supported the protesters at home. In January he was deported from Belgorod.
In response to the verdicts, hundreds of young people gathered in Khorog on 16 May. In a clash with the security forces, one protester was killed and six more were injured. Three policemen were injured. The Ministry of Internal Affairs claims that one of the organizers of the illegal action, the leader of a local organized crime group, 29-year-old Zamir Nazrishoev, was shot dead. The next day, Khorog was surrounded by troops, then a counter-terrorist operation began.
Irresolvable contradictions
Geographically, GBAO is cut off from the rest of Tajikistan. The airport in the regional capital has not received passenger planes for a long time, and by car it takes about 12 hours to get to Dushanbe. Local residents speak dialects of Tajik, besides, they profess Ismailism (the Shiite branch of Islam), while the main part of the inhabitants of the republic are Sunnis.
Gorno-Badakhshan occupies about half of the country’s territory, but only 227 thousand people live there (out of 9.5 million of the total population). It has always been difficult in the region, but the Soviet Union compensated for the natural conditions with various subsidies. Tajikistan cannot afford such a luxury, so GBAO has become one of the poorest regions of the republic. In addition, the Pamirs do not trust the officials sent from Dushanbe and are guided by local informal leaders. The official authorities consider these people to be criminal authorities, and those who sympathize with them are called separatists.
“Armed forces from Dushanbe are constantly present in GABO. Conflicts arise between them and local residents,” says Stanislav Pritchin, senior researcher at the Central Asia sector of the Center for Post-Soviet Studies at IMEMO. “Any harsh action by law enforcement agencies leads to accusations of occupation.”
The situation is complicated by the fact that, according to many signs, Emomali Rahmon is preparing to transfer power to his son, Rustam Emomali. He heads the Senate of Tajikistan. Political scientist Andrei Serenko believes that the president wants to guarantee the heir the most secure rule. For this, among other things, it is necessary to deal with the Pamir opposition.
“Some people think that official Dushanbe provoked riots in GBAO on purpose – in order to identify local leaders. However, the protest turned out to be chaotic, key figures did not join it,” Serenko says.
Despite the fact that the conflict is internal political, experts do not rule out external interference. A third party can use the controversy in Gorno-Badakhshan to undermine the foundations of the constitutional order in Tajikistan, and then involve Russia in the confrontation.
“Representatives of the collective West are capable of this. After the start of the special operation in Ukraine, we constantly see such attempts in various parts of the post-Soviet space. The situation in the Pamirs will be quite serious for at least another six months,” warns Andrey Grozin, senior researcher at the Center for Central Asian Studies. Caucasus and Ural-Volga region of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
Be that as it may, the intervention of the CSTO is not yet required. The Pamir opposition clearly does not have enough resources to ignite a civil war in Tajikistan.
