The meaning of a decision is often best revealed by those it angers and those who applaud. That autocratic governments around the world have backed the Trump administration’s move to shutter the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) speaks volumes about the significance of that decision. Fortunately, the uproar from the agency’s many supporters has prompted the US government to reconsider. Elon Musk, head of the cost-cutting initiative that is examining every piece of the US government, says he is “feeding USAID into the wood chipper,” and President Donald Trump “agreed we should shut it down.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio has suggested that USAID may continue, but under his control rather than as an independent agency.
Rescinding the closure is smart. It is impossible to overstate the value of USAID’s work in boosting US power and influence in the world. USAID was established in 1961 by President John F. Kennedy to deliver health services, disaster relief and anti-poverty efforts. The logic behind its founding was simple: The world is safer when its poorest citizens have opportunities to live better lives and the countries that promote and make possible those dreams are viewed more positively. This is sometimes called “soft power.” This thinking has been a pillar of Japanese foreign policy for the last 60 years. USAID is the world’s largest single donor, disbursing $72 billion in assistance in fiscal year 2023, and 42% of all humanitarian aid tracked by the United Nations in 2024. It has an extensive portfolio of programs and projects, from disease surveillance to war relief. According to one tally, it responded to 84 separate crises in 66 countries last year.
It cleans water and promotes democracy. Its officers have been deployed across the world, to war zones and peaceful nations. Its efforts have eased human suffering and extended lives, and has made in many cases the difference between life and death. In recent years, the agency has come under attack from conservative critics for supporting ideas and groups that oppose US interests. It has been charged with assisting radical Islamic and Palestinian groups, some of which backed or participated in the Oct. 7, 2023, terror attack against Israel. They also condemn programs that facilitate supposedly liberal or progressive values, such as diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives in Serbia and Ireland, among others.
USAID has also been attacked for funding efforts to promote democracy, human rights and good governance. These initiatives, which consumed a little over $1.5 billion in 2023, support election monitoring groups, anti-corruption watchdogs, independent media outlets and human rights organizations, all of which infuriate the autocrats in their crosshairs. Sadly, there are some in the new administration who see those governments as allies and dismiss democracy promotion as well. Critics also argue that monies have just been wasted.
They point to projects in Afghanistan that were never completed, efforts to fund tourism in Egypt and meals for al-Qaida-affiliated fighters in Syria. As the White House proclaimed, “Under President Trump, the waste, fraud and abuse ends now.” Governments should aspire to efficiency, to cut waste and to ensure that funds spent advance the national interest. Secretary of State Rubio, who is now responsible for USAID, has called it “a completely unresponsive agency that is not aligned with American foreign policy.” The Trump administration will, he added, ensure that “every dollar we are spending abroad is being spent on something that furthers our national interests.”
Authoritarians around the world are rejoicing. Dmitri Medvedev, the former Russian president, called the decision a “smart move.” Vyacheslav Volodin, chairman of the lower house of the Russian Duma, or parliament, called USAID a “criminal organization.” Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban applauded the end of funding for “globalist” organizations. They are celebrating the hardship that their adversaries — independent media or nonprofit groups that promote democracy — will now face. The shuttering of USAID is part of a broader reassessment of foreign aid. Upon taking office, Trump signed an executive order that suspended all assistance so that the government could review programs. Rubio later sent a cable to all US missions abroad explaining that this could take at least three months. As the US pauses efforts to support the world’s neediest populations, one of two things will happen. Either a need will go unfulfilled and they will experience greater suffering and deprivation or other nations will fill the gap. The government best positioned to exploit this opportunity is China. It has made support for the world’s neediest citizens a pillar of its foreign policy. Estimates of its foreign aid range from $5 billion to $7.9 billion (in 2022), placing it somewhere between the 6th and 13th largest donor in the world. Other Western nations could step up but they are unlikely to do so as quickly as Beijing.
For Japan, the Trump decision to suspend aid is a blow. This country has long recognized the value of aid and development assistance as the stabilizing mechanism that it is. This expansive view of security reflects the restraints on military action that have long circumscribed Japanese foreign and security policy. It is a view that has aligned with that of regional governments. It has elevated Japan in their thinking and afforded this nation considerable status and prestige. Japan has provided support to 190 countries and regions. In 2022, the country’s Official Development Assistance was third in the world, trailing the US and Germany. Yet the scale of the challenges and the growing need have made clear that success in this endeavor is only possible by working with other countries. As befits a security partnership worthy of the name, cooperation on foreign assistance has been a pillar of the Japan-US relationship.
In their April 2024 summit, then-Prime Minister Fumio Kishida agreed with then-US President Joe Biden to set up a senior-level strategic dialogue to coordinate global diplomacy and development efforts, the capstone of years of cooperation. In August 2023, Tokyo agreed to work with Washington and Seoul to expand development policy coordination. Their declaration said they would cooperate to “accelerate the clean energy transition; mobilize financing for quality infrastructure and resilient supply chains, including through trilateral collaboration among our development finance institutions.” This cooperation will be hard pressed to survive, for many reasons — the turmoil surrounding USAID is only one of them.
Even if USAID is resurrected, damage is being done. The US is again being exposed as an unreliable partner, one whose engagement is subject to political winds. The confusion that has surrounded the executive order has clouded the agency’s future. It is likely to lose staff and partners even if it is resurrected. While every budget should be scrutinized for waste and inefficiencies, the many intangible benefits that USAID creates are hard to capture in crude balance sheets. That return on investment has been ignored by those who disagree with USAID projects. They are likely to learn quickly how much that is when they are forced to recoup their losses by other means.
