Ibrahim Karagul
The Spanish flu (Influenza) of 1918 infected 500 million people. It decimated Europe. It was carried by soldiers, first to the US, then to other regions of the world. It was initially perceived as a seasonal flu. Even doctors took it lightly. States hid the epidemic. Practices such as “quarantine” and “effective treatment” were neglected. Weary states that experienced the world war thought they would get off easily and acted accordingly.
News reports covering the epidemic were banned in European media. As it was Spanish journalists that reported on the epidemic, it became known as the “Spanish flu.” Yet, it was, in fact, the British army that spread the epidemic. It came in three waves: Millions died. The epidemic came in three waves. The first stopped. Then the second wave started. That stopped too, but later the third wave came.
The number of people that died is still unknown. The number is said to be tens of millions (some say it is 50 million). The number of people that died from this epidemic is more than all the soldiers and civilians killed during World War I. Of course, this was a century ago. The health sector, methods to fight diseases, opportunities, economic conditions, and medical knowledge cannot be compared to the present day.
The medications we use today were not yet discovered. States, nations and individuals did not match the current level in terms of knowledge and health awareness. It was almost impossible to even find a microscope.
We now produce, kill viruses. Our hopes are high: We are in the most advanced stages of human history in numerous fields such as viruses, diseases, genealogy, pharmaceutical manufacturing, and DNA sequencing. We are now able to kill and produce viruses whenever we want. We can combine them and turn them into new species.
Looking at it from this aspect, medications and vaccines that will defeat the coronavirus (CORONA, COVID-19) will be produced a lot quicker. The world will not go through a disaster like the Spanish flu. This is what we hope. This is what we believe. If the virus was not ‘produced,’ it will be overcome. If this virus was not especially produced, if no plan was especially made to spread it, it will be overcome. This is what I personally believe.
I am not saying that this was planned by those who claim, “We first exploited religions to control the world and humanity. Then we exploited politics. Finally, we provoked the consumption craze. We held the ropes in our hands with certain types of addictions. Now we are going to use science.” However, it is a fact that these calculations were made based on the results of the corona epidemic. The world has already started to discuss which countries will fall and which will rise, what shape the global order will take, the state of the new economic order, and how power and wealth will change hands.
Global partnerships will collapse; countries, regions will stand out; the world will change in two years: We are already seeing the quarrels and showdowns of central powers over the epidemic. We are following military operations, social eruption risks and internal security preparations made in the event of extraordinary circumstances worldwide.
Forecasts for the next two years include that there may be global-scale economic stagnation, recession, and even collapses; that this may pit countries against each other; major clashes may arise due to resources; civil governments may collapse and authoritarian administrations may gain strength.
The current situation shows that “global-scale” partnerships are collapsing, national and regional centers are starting to develop, multinational organizations like the EU are going to dissolve, and the central nations of human history are going to strengthen once again.
If states fall, new forms of organization will emerge: The coronavirus alone might be the sole indicator of globalization. My prediction is that certain countries – including Turkey – will rise, multinational partnerships established post-World War II will end, and every state will strengthen its central power domain.
If the epidemic is prolonged and losses become extremely shattering, sometime later, these central states may also no longer be able to endure. That is when new, transnational organizations will emerge, but this will be nothing like the global partnership we know today. Most of those controlling the world will not be able to take part in this new organization.
Our most powerful weapon is to overcome fear, panic: Humanity is oscillating between pessimism and hope. Experts say, “We do not know when the disease will end, where it may lead the world. We cannot give a time-frame. The virus knows this.” What we need to do is overcome fear and panic. We need to keep our morale strong and continue a long-winded fight. We need to consider everything, from the best possible scenario to the worst case scenario, and prepare accordingly.
Let us take our measures, prepare and fight. Then, it will not matter even if our efforts go to waste. Getting caught unprepared on the other hand is unacceptable. It is being unprepared that is destructive.
Disaster scenarios coming from the US: Death toll may reach 200,000: Some countries (the US) are taking measures against the likelihood of hundreds of thousands of people dying. Their worst case scenarios are in the direction that a million people may die. The Trump administration says, “If we had not done anything, 2.2 million people would have died, but if we can emerge from this process with a death toll much below this, at 100,000 to 200,000, it means we did a good job.”
The president of the US National Institutes of Health says millions will be infected and 100,000 to 200,000 people will die. It is said that the epidemic may last 18 months and come in the form of a few waves.
Giant economies going into intensive care: Finance circles are talking about crippling scenarios like the 2008 and 1930 economic crises. They think that some countries will experience economic collapse in two years and, as a matter of fact, that famine will arise. Economic giants such as China, the US and Europe are going into intensive care. Foreign investors are running from certain countries – for example, they are moving away from India.
Many countries like Indonesia, European countries in particular, are preparing against the likelihood of social eruption and disorder. Almost all countries are reshaping their military operations. They are moving their fleets away from land and opening them out to the sea. They are trying to anticipate new sorts of major security threats and prepare.
The US has lost its cool: As the epidemic continues to wreak havoc in Europe, it seems to have determined the US as its epicenter and is intensifying and spreading there. Considering the statements of panic coming from the US, this is only going to intensify. As of now, the US is the only country that has lost its cool and is spreading pessimistic scenarios.
Beyond all this, I believe that these scenarios will not materialize, that the epidemic is going to be overcome in a shorter period of time than expected, and that more effective mechanisms will be implemented to avoid experiencing aggravated situations in the future. Knowledge, hope and the fight are very strong, extremely alive. Humanity is putting up an unprecedented fight and it will win. However, we have no idea what price which country will pay and the shape our world will take in the aftermath.
Everyone is returning home. Foreign troops should leave our region: If you noticed, after the epidemic started, clashes around the world came to a halt – except the attacks by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) terror group. Right in this period, we are calling on the US, the U.K., France and all other Western countries to withdraw their troops from the Middle East. After the epidemic, we must now allow them to return to these lands ever again. It seems as though most of them are not going to have the strength to come anyway. Even if they do come, nobody is ever going to accept them. This is perhaps going to be one of the major changes. While everyone is withdrawing to their own countries, we do not want these troops on lands inhabited by Muslims.
