Speculation Over Israel’s Response: Analysts Debate Impact of Removing Khamenei

Jalil Afridi

Washington DC: vIn today’s State Department press briefing, spokesperson Matthew Miller fielded a series of pressing questions regarding Israel’s potential actions against Iranian nuclear sites.

Journalists were particularly focused on whether Israel has the right to attack these nuclear sites amidst escalating tensions.

Miller refrained from any assessments but reaffirmed that while Israel holds the right to defend itself, President Biden has advised Israel against targeting Iranian nuclear infrastructure.

The U.S. stance is to avoid any actions that could lead to greater destabilization in the region, while leaving decisions about Israel’s responses to Iranian aggression up to Israel itself.

Another key topic was the potential impact of Israeli strikes on Iran’s oil fields. Given the significance of Iran’s oil exports to global markets, such an action could have widespread repercussions, potentially driving up prices and contributing to economic uncertainty.

Although Miller did not delve into the specifics of how this might impact global oil prices, the question reflects the concern over how any military escalation could influence the broader economic landscape.

Matthew from the Associated Press started the briefing question by asking about U.S. citizens currently in Lebanon, inquiring about available flight options for their safe evacuation.

Miller provided detailed information, explaining that in addition to arrangements with Middle East Airlines, the State Department has organized flights with U.S. airlines to transport American citizens from Lebanon to Istanbul.

These flights are offered at a relatively low cost of $280, and for those unable to afford the fare, the State Department has established a loan program to ensure everyone can leave the country if needed.

Notably, a journalist from Saudi Arabia also asked about U.S. citizens traveling out of Lebanon, demonstrating the broader regional interest in ensuring the safety of foreign nationals during ongoing regional tensions.

Another line of questioning touched on reports from The Times of Israel, which suggested that the Lebanese military had asked Israel to halt its ground invasion. Miller did not confirm the report, only reaffirming Israel’s sovereign right to self-defense.

One fascinating detail from the briefing was the absence of any questions regarding the potential for Israel to target Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Some analysts believe that eliminating Khamenei could have significant long-term benefits for Iran and the broader Middle East.

Removing him could weaken the power structure of the hardline regime, which has long resisted democratic reforms and fostered anti-Western sentiment.

By targeting Khamenei, analysts argue, Israel might create an opening for Iran’s younger, more progressive generation to push for democratic changes. With Khamenei gone, the Revolutionary Guard and other conservative elements in the Iranian government might find it difficult to maintain the same level of control, potentially giving way to a more moderate political landscape.

This speculation has gained traction among some Middle Eastern and Indian journalists, who argue that Khamenei’s removal would not only disrupt Iran’s current foreign policies but could also pave the way for internal reform.

Iran’s youth, who are increasingly disillusioned with the clerical establishment, might seize the opportunity to advocate for greater political freedoms and engagement with the global community.

The briefing also touched on the tragic story of an Azeri girl, originally kidnapped by ISIS from Iraq and later transferred to Hamas in Gaza. Miller provided details of her rescue, crediting U.S. for her safe return to Iraq. He emphasized the importance of respecting the girl’s privacy given the trauma she endured, noting that Iraqi counterparts had initially alerted the U.S. to her presence.

He concluded by highlighting the broader issue of missing girls in Iraq, many of whom remain unaccounted for after years of conflict and extremist violence.

The session wrapped up with Miller responding to a final question about Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, stating that U.S. was not informed by Hassan Nasrallah before his killing whether was interested in holding a ceasefire.