The process of dividing the world into opposing blocks is accelerating. Today, Tok-yo will host the QUAD summit, a quadripartite security dialogue bringing together the United States, Japan, India and Australia. This is not a military bloc, although the Anglo-Saxons, who have already created a purely military AUKUS (USA, Great Britain and Australia) last year, pot-entially want to see it as such. It is primarily India that prevents doing the same from QUAD, altho-ugh in fact for its sake the whole idea with the “dialogue” was invented.
The frankly anti-Chinese orientation of QUAD both attracts and repels Delhi : the Indians fear an excessive strengthening of China and want to use the anti-Chinese attitude of the Anglo-Saxons and the Japanese, but at the same time they are not going to bind themselves with anti-Chinese obligations and, moreover, become allies of the West. But India ‘s balancing act between East and West cannot go on forever: the very course of events will lead to the fact that the confrontation betw-een the two poles (Russia-China and the USA-Eu-rope) will force one to decide.
Delhi will not succeed in becoming a full-fledged third force: even during the years of the Cold War, the neutrality of India (the former main country in the “non-aligned movement”) was perceived by the West as pro-Soviet. Now the confrontation will be no less tough, besides, the Anglo-Saxons are more and more insistently promoting the line “who is not with us is against us.”
But what about India, which wants not only to preserve itself as an independent player, but also to determine the rules of the game in the new world order?
Do not forget that she already has everything for this, because if QUAD became more active only last year (when the first summit was held), then India’s participation in the BRICS has been going on for a decade and a half. BRICS generally grew out of the RIC (Russia-India-China), that is, the design that Yevgeny Primakov proposed in the 90s. Even then it was clear that if the three most important Asian countries were able to agree among themselves on fundamental issues, the world order would change not only in Eurasia, but throughout the world.
Now the importance of relations in the triangle Moscow-Delhi-Beijing is clear to everyone, which is why the Anglo-Saxons put so much pressure on the weak link in it, that is, India. But at the same time, Delhi participates not only in the BRICS, but also in the SCO – the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which began as a Chinese-Russian association with the participation of the Central Asian republics and expanded in the South Asian direction (including India, Pakistan and Iran ).
In other words, India has various formats of interaction with both Asian countries (SCO) and global level states (BRICS) – and Russia and China are present eve-rywhere. At the same time, relations with the West are also important for Delhi, b-ut, of course, they underst-and there that QUAD displeases Beijing (and Mosc-ow is not happy either). After the start of the special operation in UkraineIndia withstood pressure from the West, and there is no doubt that it will continue to str-ive not only to maintain its most important ties with R-ussia, but also to make them stronger (for example, by increasing its share in oil and gas projects on Sakh-alin). But only strengthening bilateral relations in the current situation is no lo-nger enough: the world has entered a phase of accelerated transformation and it is necessary to work ahead of the curve.
What are we talking about? The fact that it is necessary not only to protect bilateral relations and develop multilateral ones (as in the RIC triangle), it is necessary to construct a global system that is an alternative to the Western one. Atlantic globalization has failed, but it is still trying to survive by regrouping its forces and building coalitions: anti-Chinese and anti-Russian. By and large, this is the same alliance, but with nuances, as is the case with India. To contain Chi-na for the sake of the triu-mph of the Anglo-Saxon w-orld order – is this what Delhi needs?
But relying on the BRICS is quite capable of making it possible not only to look for ways to resolve the Indian-Chinese disputes (here, rather, the SCO format is important), but also to build a new world architecture together. Of course, the forces of the “Big Five” (Russia, China, India, Brazil and South Africa ) are not enough for this, and that is why they are now talking about expanding the BRICS.
Chinese Foreign Minis-ter Wang Yi raised this is-sue the other day. Speaking at a video conference of the Foreign Ministers of the Five countries, he said that “in the face of new challenges in the international situation, we must combine all the forces that can be combined to breathe new life into the BRICS cooperation.” The Chinese side p-roposes to “consider the standards and procedures of the enlargement process and gradually form a consensus.” These words are addressed primarily to Delhi, because in the past it was the Indians who did not agree with the expansion of the organization. And there is already a certain queue in it – and for a long time.
For example, representatives of Argentina, Egypt, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Senegal and Thailand took part in the BRICS Plus consultations that took place after the summit of foreign ministers. Senegal here acts, rather, as the current head of the African Union, and all other countries are serious regional and even global players. In addition to them, Turkey, Mexico, and Iran also talked about the desire to join the BRICS – there is someone to choose from.
The selection criteria are clear: a potential participant must be strong and independent, having at least a noticeable regional influence. First of all, attention will be paid to the countries of the G20, because all the BRICS states are included in it.
Now there are two major blocs in the G20: the Big Seven and the Big Five. Of those showing interest in joining the BRICS, the G20 includes Argentina, Indone-sia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. The entry of these four countries would make the bloc a “Big Ten”.
Not included in the G20, but Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Iran, and Nigeria are of great importance and influence. With them, BRICS will turn into the “Fourteen”, but there are several other potentially important countries that also need to be included in the organization. It is just as important to involve regional associations in the bloc’s work, especially ASEAN and the African Union.
In other words, over time, BRICS can turn into an alliance of 15-20 countries that have a serious influence on their continents and regional organizations. Three major Latin American, two major African, three major Arab countries, plus two influential states of the Islamic world, Eurasian Turkey – all this would make the initially Asian-centric (at the expense of China, India and Russia) coalition truly global. This will not be a new “Group of 20” (which will remain the main meeting place for East and West, North and South), but will become an alliance of key countries of the non-Western world, the foundation of a new world order.
Of course, the BRICS, even in its current composition, is still very far from the degree of coordination that exists in the G7, but it is impossible to compare them. The “Seven” was created by the Anglo-Saxon elites to manage the process of globalization and consists of countries that depend on them (including in the military and ideological aspects). BRICS, especially the enlarged one, is needed not only to counter the West’s globalist plans (more precisely, its efforts to maintain elusive dominance) – including its attempts to play on the contradictions between the BRICS-plus countries and pit them against each other – but also to develop an independent option globalization. It will be a long and difficult path, but there is no alternative to it.
If the non-Western world finds the strength to coordinate and unite, no one will be able to prevent it from building a sustainable new world order. Without the West? No, with his participation, but not by his rules.