UK-Germany-France triumvirate returning to prominence

Andrew Hammond

French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk visited Moldova last week to celebrate that nation’s independence day, in the face of Russian meddling. Two of those nations are also part of another European political triumvirate that is reemerging as the leading group of powers in the region.

In recent months, there has been a growing warmth in relations between Merz, Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. This was displayed most recently during the summit on Ukraine with US President Donald Trump at the White House on Aug. 19.

This growing cordiality in post-Brexit relations between the UK, Germany and France did not start this year. Since the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, there has been a growing realization in France and Germany of the need for greater collaboration with the UK, and vice versa.

So, this trilateral warming process actually began some time ago, under the leaderships of former UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, Macron and Germany’s former Chancellor Olaf Scholz. More recent developments, including the second Trump presidency and the UK-EU “Brexit reset” framework deal in May, have simply added impetus.

This rejuvenated E3 dynamic has been evident in several high-profile platforms in recent years, including a visit by US President Joe Biden to Berlin last October, when Starmer, Macron and Scholz were the European leaders with whom he held a quadrilateral meeting.

This so-called E3 dynamic has been championed in bilateral relations between members of the group too. In July, Starmer and Merz signed a UK-Germany friendship treaty that covers defense and economic growth, along with other wider issues. It also includes a mutual assistance clause specifying that a threat to one nation would be regarded as a threat to the other. This agreement helps cement the E3 trilateral alliance — France was already linked to Germany through the Aachen Treaty and to the UK through the Lancaster House Treaties.

With Macron leaving office in 2027 after two presidential terms, the relationship between Starmer and Merz could prove to be especially key for European and wider international relations during the remainder of the Trump presidency. Both leaders could be key reformers whose periods in office overlap. The next UK general election is likely to take place in 2028 or 2029 and the next German ballot in 2029. The next US presidential election will be in November 2028.

At the same time as ties are warming between the UK and Germany, it is also key that London and Paris and Paris and Berlin have grown closer too. Of course, the Franco-German alliance has long been the motor of European integration in the postwar era and Macron enjoyed a generally positive relationship with former Chancellor Angela Merkel, allowing them to achieve much together on the international stage.

However, cooperation between the two powers ebbs and flows depending upon the personalities of the top office holders in Berlin and Paris. Macron had an uneven relationship with Merkel’s successor, Scholz, but ties might be moving in a more positive direction under Scholz’s successor, Merz.

Warmer Franco-British ties were on display in July, when Macron made his first state visit to the UK. The last official visit by a French president to Britain was by Nicolas Sarkozy almost two decades earlier, in 2008.

Whereas much of the UK-German bilateral relationship has centered on economics, security is key to UK-French ties, as both countries are nuclear-armed states with permanent membership of the UN Security Council, unlike other European partners. The 2010 Lancaster House deals between the two powers opened the door to jointly updating their nuclear arsenals and there is the potential for broader military coordination as well.

As positive as the reemergence of the British-French-German relationship is for Europe, their ties will continue to face challenges in the post-Brexit era. This is especially the case in terms of the UK’s bilateral ties with the other two.

Take, for example, the relationship between Paris and London. Macron adopted one of the most hard-line stances in response to the UK’s departure from the EU. This reflected the complex, often contradictory, relationship that Paris has long had with London in the context of European affairs.

Macron’s position on Brexit, including his robust stance precluding any future UK economic access to the single market, has been reinforced by broader French plans to pitch Paris as a rival financial center to London. Macron hailed the post-Brexit decision to relocate the European Banking Agency to Paris from London in 2019 as “recognition of France’s attractiveness and European commitment.” He hoped the relocation of the agency would help bring more banking jobs to Paris from the UK.

The French position on Brexit underlines the fact that each of the EU states has distinct political, economic and social interests that inform their stance on the UK’s departure from the bloc. This varies according to factors such as trade and wider economic ties, patterns of migration with the UK, domestic election pressures and levels of support for euroskepticism within their populaces.

While Paris has now moderated its position somewhat, the UK and France remain misaligned in some key areas, including fishing rights. Another example is migration, a matter on which Starmer is under growing pressure to prevent people illegally crossing the English Channel and entering the UK from France.

In July, Starmer and Macron agreed a new “one in, one out” system of returns, under which the UK will deport to France undocumented migrants who arrived in small boats in return for accepting an equal number of legitimate asylum seekers with UK family connections. However, it remains unclear how successful this will be in preventing migrants from attempting to make so-called small-boat crossings.

The reemergence of the E3 has significant potential to further increase collaboration between Europe’s three leading economies. However, the distinct post-Brexit interests of each state will continue to create tensions from time to time, which might remain a barrier to the full resetting of trilateral relations.

Courtesy: arabnews