ISTANBUL: The Ukrainian and Russian delegations attending their first direct peace talks in years spent Thursday in the same country but different cities, pointing to the deep divide between them, though it appears a meeting will finally take place.
Speculation had been rife that the talks, called for by Russian President Vladimir Putin and agreed to by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, would include the two leaders and maybe even the U.S. president. Instead Russia sent a low level delegation of deputy ministers and experts.
Morning discussions were postponed to the afternoon after the Ukrainian delegation stayed in the capital, Ankara, where Zelensky was meeting with his Turkish counterpart. He described the level of the Russian delegation sent to Istanbul as “more like a sham level.”
Following his meeting in Ankara, Zelensky confirmed that he would send a delegation to Istanbul “notwithstanding the low level of the Russian delegation.” He said he was “hoping to demonstrate our willingness and at least try to take the first steps toward ending this war, specifically achieving a ceasefire” and the delegation would arrive in Istanbul on Friday.
When asked if he was disappointed at the level of the Russian delegation to the talks that he had promoted, President Donald Trump said Thursday he wasn’t. “Look, nothing is going to happen until Putin and I get together,” he told reporters on Air Force One from Qatar.
Zelensky’s challenge to Putin on Sunday to meet him in Istanbul — and Trump’s statements that he was open to flying in — fueled speculation that Putin could meet with Trump for the first time since the U.S. president’s election, and potentially Zelensky for the first time since before Russia’s full-scale invasion of his country in February 2022.
Putin’s attendance appeared to be a long shot from the start — he never said he was coming to be begin with — but the Kremlin held a two-day pause, refusing to reveal its team, while Trump has continued to hint from his trip through Persian Gulf states that he may take a detour if he thinks “it would be helpful.”
The Trump administration also raised the profile of the U.S. presence at the talks announcing that special envoys Steve Witkoff and Keith Kellogg would attend the talks in Istanbul on Friday.
Ukraine sent a high-level team that includes Zelensky’s closest adviser, Andriy Yermak, presidential aide Ihor Zhovkva, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov and Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha. The team, however, has stayed away from Istanbul — most are in Ankara — after Putin announced the lower-level delegation.
Many have interpreted the composition of the Russian delegation as a sign that Putin has not moved from his hard-line demands for Ukraine, including a limit on the size of its military.
“The chances of a peaceful outcome in this round have plummeted after Putin announced his negotiators,” Russian political analyst Vladimir Pastukhov said. “Unless something changes dramatically [on Thursday], which is unlikely, then this ‘negotiator lineup’ is a signal that Putin has chosen war over de-escalation.”
Speaking from a NATO meeting in the Turkish resort town of Antalya, the military alliance’s secretary general, Mark Rutte, said there might be breakthroughs in coming weeks, “if also the Russians are willing to play ball and not only the Ukrainians.”
“It’s now up to Russia to make sure that they take the next steps necessary,” he said.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is expected in Istanbul on Friday, said the only path to peace was through diplomacy and expressed hope that “progress will be made here soon.”
Putin’s Sunday remarks about the need to resume the direct negotiations “interrupted” in 2022 turned out to be literal: the roster of Russian delegates published by the Kremlin late Wednesday night was nearly identical to the group Moscow sent to talks in Belarus and Turkey a few weeks after his invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
The Russian delegation is headed by Vladimir Medinsky, who led the earlier failed negotiations in 2022. Medinsky is a conservative former culture minister known for revisionist historical essays who now serves as an adviser to Putin. A new addition appeared to be Igor Kostyukov, the head of Russian military intelligence, or the GRU.
A Ukrainian official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media, acknowledged the Russian delegation is low-level but said the inclusion of intelligence officials could contribute to the talks, unlike the political delegates, such as Medinsky, who he described as “nothing.”
Russian officials signaled their determination to base Thursday’s talks on a document that was under negotiation in 2022, but never agreed upon. The document was unacceptable to Kyiv because it gave Russia a veto over Western military assistance to Ukraine in case of resumed conflict. It also barred Ukraine from NATO membership, slashed its military and forced neutrality on Ukraine.
Meetings on peace talks between global leaders are often carefully choreographed, with agreements largely nailed down beforehand, except for a few key details, but Trump has left open the possibility of attending.
“I was thinking about going, but it’s very tough because of what we’re doing today and tomorrow,” Trump said from Qatar on Thursday. “But you know, if something happened, I’d go on Friday if it was appropriate.”
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva made a surprise visit to Moscow on Wednesday evening to urge Putin to attend the Istanbul talks. The Brazilian leader was returning from a trip to China, just days after attending Russia’s Victory Day military parade in Red Square on Friday.
Lula told journalists in Beijing that it would cost nothing to meet with Putin on a return trip and tell him to go to Istanbul and negotiate, Brazilian media reported. But the two leaders did not meet face-to-face, the Kremlin said, instead holding a phone call “during a technical stop” of the Brazilian leader’s plane in Moscow.
Putin and Zelensky have met only once, in 2019, in Paris with French President Emmanuel Macron and then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel, to discuss the earlier Ukrainian peace process based on the Minsk Agreements.
The meeting failed to resolve the crisis caused by Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its orchestration of rebel uprisings in eastern Ukraine the same year.
Trump administration officials have offered concessions to Putin, including ruling out NATO membership for Ukraine and indicating that Russia would keep Ukrainian territory it has occupied. But Putin rejected Ukrainian and European demands, backed by Trump, for a 30-day ceasefire, instead proposing direct talks with no ceasefire.
Putin’s most recent stalling tactic runs the risk that Russia could drag out talks over the summer while attempting another offensive in Ukraine after months of a grueling war of attrition, sidestepping U.S. and European calls for an immediate, unconditional ceasefire.
From the NATO meeting, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot accused Putin of dragging his feet. “Vladimir Putin sent a low-level delegation to Turkey today because he wants to avoid the massive sanctions that the U.S. and Europeans are preparing to force him to enter peace into negotiations.”
Putin is treading a delicate path, trying to avoid the blame should peace talks fail, while creating the conditions for Trump to cut off future arms deliveries and intelligence to Ukraine if peace talks do not progress.
Putin has met Trump’s envoy Witkoff four times to spell out Russia’s conditions for peace, with critics accusing Moscow of dragging out the process by imposing maximalist conditions on a ceasefire.
Trump and European leaders have, at times, threatened tougher sanctions on Putin if he shows that he is not serious about peace talks, but Putin has insisted he is committed to peace while repeatedly adding conditions and complications to negotiations.
Courtesy: washingtonpost
