Why Southeast Asia prefers neutrality amid superpower rivalry

Ehtesham Shahid

In the dynamic geopolitical theater of Southeast Asia, nations like Malaysia exemplify a deliberate stance of neutrality amid the escalating superpower rivalry between the US and China. The country’s strategic position along the pivotal Strait of Malacca underscores its significant role in global commerce and military navigation. The preference for neutrality is not merely a matter of geographical necessity; it reflects the complex interplay of geopolitical, economic and historical factors that shape the region.
As an integral member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Malaysia adheres to noninterference and consensus decision-making principles, a stance crucial in a nation marked by its multiethnic composition. The neutral posture is a safeguard, ensuring that Malaysia’s territory remains free from the machinations of superpower conflicts. The country’s membership of the Non-Aligned Movement further emphasizes a belief in diplomacy as a path to coexistence rather than competition. Despite the similarities, the ecosystem in which Indonesia operates is slightly different from that of Malaysia. As the largest country in Southeast Asia in terms of population and economy and as an archipelagic state with strategic maritime routes, Indonesia seeks to maximize its autonomy and regional influence. Neutrality allows it to act as a regional leader and mediator, promoting ASEAN centrality and unity while avoiding entanglement in conflicts that could compromise its sovereignty.
Indonesia is cautious of foreign influence that could undermine its sovereignty or involve it in territorial disputes, particularly in the South China Sea, which it has an interest in protecting. Indonesia seeks to play a constructive role in global and regional diplomacy, promoting dialogue and cooperation on climate change, terrorism and regional security. Collectively, Southeast Asian countries want to avoid getting trapped in a rivalry that risks disastrous consequences. There is no denying China’s advantage because of its proximity to Southeast Asia, which facilitates trade, cultural and people-to-people exchanges, reinforcing economic ties. Many Southeast Asian countries have deep historical and cultural ties with China, influencing their foreign policy decisions. China is also a significant trading partner, investor and source of tourists for many countries in the region.
The US may have established regional security alliances and partnerships, countering China’s growing military assertiveness. However, countries in the region seek to maximize their economic benefits while minimizing the risk of becoming overly dependent on any single power. These countries have shown varied levels of alignment toward China and the US, influenced by their unique historical, economic and strategic circumstances. For example, Laos and Cambodia have been perceived as more closely aligned with China, partly due to significant Chinese investment and aid. Conversely, while economically engaged with China, Vietnam often seeks closer security ties with the US to balance against Beijing’s assertiveness in the South China Sea.
With Beijing’s growing influence and the strategic rebalance of the US toward Asia, Southeast Asian countries often adopt balancing and hedging strategies. This involves engaging with both superpowers to ensure their interests are protected, regardless of changes in the international system. This strategy helps mitigate the risks associated with the shifting dynamics of superpower rivalry. Southeast Asia’s preference for neutrality amid superpower rivalry is a pragmatic approach that reflects the region’s complex and multifaceted interests. It allows these countries to navigate the challenges of globalization and geopolitical shifts while striving to maintain sovereignty, peace and economic prosperity. Countries in the region navigate a complex landscape, seeking to leverage their relationships with superpowers to support their national interests without compromising sovereignty or regional stability.
A Chinese Journal of International Politics paper examined the debates about how Sino-US competition affects Southeast Asia by identifying four interrelated issues: power shift, regional countries’ strategic behavior, ASEAN centrality, and regional order. It also identified profound disagreement on whether or not China, despite its economic ascent, can rival the US on all fronts. “Sino-US power competition would shape the strategic environment of regional states and ASEAN, whose choice would, in turn, affect the evolution of regional order,” it stated.