Imad Atoui & Rania Khalouta
Is the arms race between Arab countries amid the COVID-19 pandemic really about self-defense or maintaining a balance of power in the region?
With the spread of COVID-19, most of the Arab countries stood materially naked in the fight against the global pandemic in their respective territories. However, it is puzzling that they have huge budgets for armaments but have left the vital medical sector to fend for itself. Arab armament expenditures ranked among the top 50 countries globally; meanwhile, the medical sector’s struggle to cope with the virus turned Arab militarization into a futile effort. The question is: Why has the health care sector been left in a weak state while huge budgets have been approved for armaments?
As the pandemic wreaks havoc on the planet, almost all Arab countries faced a new unbeatable lethal threat. It is true that even developed countries paid a heavy price with lives lost, but, more or less, these advanced countries have a medical infrastructure in place and were able to play a socioeconomic role in limiting the effects of the pandemic. In the Arab region, however, the weakness of medical infrastructure with governments throwing in the towel in the face of problems of the social economy has exacerbated the pandemic plight.
It might be argued, by some, that the declared rate of infected people is not as high when compared with the highly-infected countries in Europe and even some territories near Arab countries. Nevertheless, what one must bear in mind is that the huge number declared in these developed countries corresponds to the high amount of daily testing. For instance, Turkey’s number reached a peak of 15%, while Israel had an average of 7.7% of infected people from the total tested number.
In most Arab countries, the situation is a ticking bomb due to the under-pressure health care sector and the lack of medical tests. For instance, except for Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Tunisia and to some extent Egypt with an average less than 10%, while Algeria reached 39% and Morocco 21% from their total tested number. There is no data about the number of people tested in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Jordan and Oman.
According to the aforementioned data, the same countries that are sinking in the plight of the pandemic are countries well ranked in purchasing weapons. Strategically, the readiness for war or fighting implies the readiness of a whole military society. The strategic plan should not be confined only to material logistics, but rather, a strong strategic plan is primarily a qualitative configuration that requires the maintenance of the human military component who can make the difference in the face of a threat. Sound medical service must be provided when needed, whether during or after facing any threat to ensure the endurance of a war.
In this context, the lack of significant and strong medical support could inflict severe harm to the military’s capabilities. What if the harm inflicts a large number of civilians and targets the guards of the nation? In fact, the Arab stance toward armament tendency casts a shadow on the reasons behind armament. There is a huge gap and incompatible balance between the money spent on armament and military maintenance. Amid the virus outbreak, many soldiers and countless civilians are at risk of being infected by the virus.
Arab countries present a modest number of military bodies if compared with their neighboring countries like Iran, Pakistan, India and southern European Union countries. That means, no Arab country is ready to go to war even in the classical sense of the term. Saudi Arabia failed to protect its geostrategic depth and Yemen from Houthi strikes. Syria has already consumed its military energy at home. The Egyptian military turned into a military instead of protecting the country from external threats. Libya is immersed in a divided militia fighting a prolonged proxy war. Tunisia’s military is still weak and less-equipped, and Iraq has a military with a proxy political agenda. Most Gulf countries’ militaries together are modest compared with India, Iran or Pakistan. What if they face a strong army with their fragile health care system?
Even before the pandemic, despite the billions of dollars designated for armament, the failure was always a fate in Arab wars in 1956, 1967, 1973, Libya against Chad, Iraq against Iran and Kuwait, and it is still annexed today to Saudi Arabia in Yemen, Syria and Libya in their territories. They did not win a single war despite the huge money spent on new military technologies from the US, the EU and Russia. Supplying countries still maintain weapon deals with Arab countries, although there is no clear threat. So why do they still seek weapons?
What if the current epidemic is a biological war? The pandemic might be an unforgivable lesson for Arab countries to learn from.
The lack of a strong health care system that could soften the death rate must be taken into account and leaders must consider this time as a natural biological threat that could reappear any time in the future.
The threat in modern times is more than just a missile that could be dropped down or soldiers revolting against countries’ own soldiers. Today’s threat is a black death that does not distinguish between military, civilian and leaders.
