Andrew Hammond
The year 2023 proved to be an important 12 months in terms of global politics and the economy. Yet 2024 could prove to be an even more pivotal year, especially given the important elections in which an estimated 2 billion people in dozens of nations will head to the polls — more, perhaps, than in any other year in modern history.
Little wonder, then, that the markets are already looking ahead to these eye-catching and potentially game-changing ballots around the world. They begin on Jan. 7 in Bangladesh and include elections in established and emerging great powers, such as the US and India, as well as pivotal middle powers such as Indonesia, Mexico and Russia.
The most-watched ballot, of course, will be the presidential election on Nov. 5 in the US (population 340 million). It seems likely that the incumbent, President Joe Biden, will stand for a second term, despite the 81-year-old’s uneven poll numbers.
All eyes are on whether Donald Trump, 77, will be the Republican challenger, which would raise the significant possibility that the political maverick could become only the second person in history elected to the White House for non-consecutive terms. The first was Grover Cleveland, in 1884 and 1892.
While the outcome of the US presidential race is genuinely uncertain, the same cannot be said of the counterpart contest in Russia, on March 15-17. President Vladimir Putin, 71, is seeking a fifth term and widely expected to emerge triumphant in a nation with a population of more than 140 million.
Indeed, such is Putin’s political longevity, a new term will mean he will celebrate a combined 25 years of prime ministership and presidency this year. He is also on track to possibly even surpass Joseph Stalin’s near 30-year reign as Russian leader.
Yet while Putin appears to be firmly entrenched in power, he is not politically invulnerable right now, as illustrated by the Wagner mutiny in June last year. While he might well remain in power for several years, his authority might decay significantly if he fails to deliver the “victory” in the war in Ukraine he promised in February 2022.
From a regional standpoint, it is the Asia Pacific that will perhaps host the greatest number of pivotal elections. In India, polls suggest Prime Minister Narendra Modi, 73, is likely to rule the roost once again when the largest democracy in the world, with a population of more than 1.4 billion, goes to the ballot box between April and May.
Another leader looking for a renewed mandate is Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, 76, as she seeks further ballot success for the Awami League in a country with a population of about 165 million. While she has earned plaudits internationally for resettling hundreds of thousands of Rohingya refugees from Myanmar, her government has been criticized for what is perceived as its increasingly authoritarian rule.
In Taiwan, population 24 million, the Jan. 13 presidential contest is being framed by China, which claims the island nation as its territory, as a choice between war and peace. Beijing has focused its criticism on Lai Ching-te, 64, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party’s candidate, warning that any attempted push for formal independence for Taiwan will mean conflict.
The race to lead Indonesia, the world’s fourth-most populous nation, with about 280 million people, is also being widely watched internationally, not least because popular incumbent President Joko Widodo, 62, known as Jokowi, cannot run for a third term because of term limits.
Though he is not on the Feb. 14 ballot himself, his political and economic legacy nevertheless looms large, including the so-called “Jokowinomics” (state-led developmentalism) that have helped bring a new wave of growth to the nation.
Moreover, his son Gibran Rakabuming Raka, 36, is standing as the vice-presidential running mate of Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, 72, which has sparked criticism that Widodo is trying to establish a political dynasty.
But the Asia Pacific is not the only place where political action is ramping up in 2024. Other notable elections, outside of those in Russia and the US, will take place in Africa, where about a third of the continent’s population will head to the polls, including in coup-hit Mali, Chad and Burkina Faso.
The election in South Africa, which has a population of 60 million and is a member of the expanding BRICS group of nations, might prove to be the most competitive in the post-apartheid era.
Certainly, the long-ruling African National Congress, currently led by Prime Minister Cyril Ramaphosa, 71, which first came to power three decades ago under Nelson Mandela, is likely to win the most votes. But polls indicate that its share of the vote could fall below 50 percent for the first time since it gained power in 1994, raising the prospect of a coalition government.
In the Americas, meanwhile, the 130 million population of Mexico will likely face a choice between Claudia Sheinbaum, 61, who was formerly in charge of Mexico City and is a member of the ruling Morena party, and Xochitl Galvez, 60, a former senator from the main opposition coalition Frente por Mexico, as their next president.
This choice between two women is a welcome first in the country’s history and means that come December, Mexico, a nation sometimes known for its machismo, will be run by a female.
The outcomes of few of these high-profile ballots, which feature a large number of candidates in their 70s or older, are clear cut. What is certain, however, is that they will not only shape domestic politics and international relations, but also the global economic and financial landscape in the key decade that lies ahead.
