Barak Ravid
TEL AVIV: Israel could be risking escalation with Iran and increased tensions with the Biden administration by continuing to strike Iranian ships — a risk that is exacerbated by Israel’s political crisis and dysfunctional interim government.
Why it matters: An Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps ship was attacked in the Red Sea off the coast of Yemen on Tuesday, the same day the Vienna talks opened.
The backstory: Over the last two years, Israel has been engaged in a secret military campaign to sabotage dozens of Iranian ships and tankers that had transferred oil to Syria or missile parts to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
This campaign was kept under the radar until it was reported several weeks ago by the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times.
Around the same time, the Iranians belatedly retaliated by attacking two Israeli-owned ships in the Gulf. Tuesday’s attack was an Israeli response.
What they’re saying: The Pentagon was quick to tell reporters that the U.S. wasn’t involved in the attack, and U.S. officials later told the New York Times that Israel was responsible.
The Israeli government has been silent on the attacks other than general statements against Iran.
The attacks could complicate U.S.-Iran nuclear diplomacy and the Biden administration’s efforts to end the war in Yemen.
What next: U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is due in Israel on Sunday. The regional escalation with Iran will be one of the main topics in his discussions.
This will be the first Cabinet-level visit to the Middle East from the Biden administration, which has been shifting attention away from the region and toward China and Russia.
Israeli officials also intend to raise U.S.-Israel security understandings, reached in the final weeks of the Trump administration, on maintaining Israel’s qualitative military edge in the region. Israel wants to ensure the Biden administration is committed to those understandings.
It’s not yet clear whether Austin will make other stops in the Middle East. The Pentagon declined to comment for this story.
