S. Mudassir Ali Shah
President Donald Trump’s cocky assertion that 2018 is going to be a year of spectacular gains for his administration and the deeply divided Afghan government rings so hollow in the wake of three fatal assaults in the heart of Kabul. Worse still, he is no mood to launch peace negotiations with the Taliban.
On Monday, nearly a dozen soldiers were killed in a militant attack on Afghanistan’s premier military academy in the capital. At the weekend, 103 people lost their lives while more than 200 others sustained wounds in a massive explosion at a police checkpoint near foreign diplomatic missions in a crowded street of the terrorised city. The blast left charred bodies strewn across several blocks.
A week earlier, at least 22 individuals including 14 foreigners were killed in a 15-hour siege at the luxury Intercontinental Hotel, which was the target of a similar attack seven years ago. The Taliban strike simply stumped a highly ham-handed security establishment.
Both high-profile attacks underscored the ferocity of the relentless Taliban insurgency. The incidents came soon after the US warned militants could storm high-end hotels. The warning concurrently spotlighted the gloomy security environment around the barricaded capital and the inability of Afghan and NATO forces to take preventive measures.
The killing of nine Ukrainian crewmembers of the private airline Kam Air lost their lives in the hotel carnage will prompt international professionals to rethink their association with Afghan firms that cannot give them the kind of security provided by the UN or foreign embassies. It will also scare away already jittery investors from a country still groping for economic stability and institutional strength. Unmoved by much-touted incentives from the government, many entrepreneurs have already moved businesses to Central Asian and Middle Eastern states.
Shockingly, Afghan and Nato security personnel could neither stop the assailants nor protect a handful of vulnerable hotels in Kabul, where terrorists seem to enjoy unrestricted freedom of movement. Civilians, conversely, are frisked and traffic choked at every checkpoint in the city. With the deployment of 3,000 additional troops, Trump has bulked up the US military presence in Afghanistan to more than 14,000. Another 1,000 soldiers are due this spring, but Kabul continues to bleed.
Washington’s insistence on an outright battlefield victory has been counterintuitive, pushing up the collateral damage and dampening prospects for intra-Afghan negotiations. Additionally, escalating airstrikes have failed to rein in the militants.
Casualties among the security forces have been classified to keep their morale intact. This is a demonstrably bad decision. It could be useful in terms of counter-insurgency operations. However, it helps cloak gaffes of a dopey security establishment, impedes the accountability of culpable officials. As the 16-year-old war shows no sign of abating, about 50 people were mown down in guerrilla-linked violence the same day in Balkh, Herat and Farah provinces. The growing terrorist activities, coupled with frequent security lapses, can be curbed if the peace process is given a fair chance.
A mid-January visit by UN Security Council diplomats to Kabul reflected renewed global interest in a political settlement. The team agreed peace talks were the best option to end the war. Regional countries and the broader international community have a role to play in creating the right conditions for dialogue.
Immediately after the delegates wrapped up their trip, the first since 2010, the Afghan government was seen inching closer to peace parleys with the Taliban, whose envoys held exploratory talks on resuming the peace process during a visit to Islamabad. Days ahead of the UNSC delegation’s arrival, representatives from Taliban’s Qatar Office flew to Islamabad to kick-start stalled peace talks with Kabul. But the team, authorised by the Taliban’s supreme leader, could not convince the movement’s military commanders.
A week earlier, leaders of a breakaway Taliban faction and Hezb-i-Islami Afghanistan (HIA) attended a back-channel meeting in Istanbul. Subsequent denials by the government and Taliban, however, suggested the informal negotiations were just another false start.
Pakistan is believed to be prodding the Taliban into sitting across the table with the Afghan government. Russia and China, too, have voiced their willingness to facilitate reconciliation in Afghanistan. But the US views their offers with arrogant derision.
Often treated as a whipping boy by Washington, Islamabad’s support remains critical to the success of the NATO-led mission. To achieve stability in Afghanistan, the Trump team must keep its South Asian ally in the loop.
Neighbours must appreciate the grim reality that Afghanistan, where the US has been paying a staggering price in treasure and blood, cannot be controlled through proxies. A failure of the NATO effort will be a disaster of epic proportions for the Afghans. On the domestic front, Ghani has to patch up rifts with political foes, including strongmen like Vice-President Gen. Abdul Rashid Dostum and ousted Balkh governor Atta Mohammad Noor. The country desperately needs a modicum of political stability to emerge as a commercial hub or serve as a bridge between South Asia and Central Asia.
