Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib
Khalil Al-Hayya was the Hamas politburo member who presented a counteroffer to Israel through the negotiators in Cairo. The offer rejected the handing over of hostages before there is a permanent ceasefire in place. The Israeli offer, which is not much of an offer, was for Hamas to surrender the hostages in return for a six-week break, after which the carnage would resume. Though the US is saying there must be a ceasefire, it is claiming that the “ball is in Hamas’ court.” It is not, the US is trying to dictate a surrender.
The holy month of Ramazan is a time when emotions run high. Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has put in place strict restrictions on worshippers at Al-Aqsa Mosque. This is also the time for the extremists and settlers to provoke Palestinians. A third intifada may erupt in the West Bank if the slaughter continues in Gaza. This will mean all hell breaking loose for Israel. Hence, the proposal of a six-week truce is aimed at appeasing Palestinians during Ramazan, while allowing Israel to continue its genocide afterward.
What the American side is claiming is that, during the six weeks of ceasefire, mediation will take place to make sure that it becomes permanent. However, recent experience has shown that the Americans are unwilling to exert any pressure on Israel beyond the narrative. Did they not advise Israel against a ground campaign? Israel still went ahead with it. Did they not ask Israel to diminish the civilian casualties? Yet Israel is still on a killing spree in Gaza. The US has not put any conditions on military aid to Israel despite the empty threats that are circulating in the media. This is why there is no confidence that Washington will put any pressure on Israel to stop the war. To add to that, no one really believes the US. People remember Saddam Hussein in 1990. After he surrendered the hostages of British Airways Flight 149, the US went ahead and bombed him. The language of Hamas and the nonnegotiable offer brought by Al-Hayya shows very well that the group does not believe the US. Nor are they willing to offer a free win for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
A six-week ceasefire would be nothing more than a break for Netanyahu to claim a win by returning the hostages and a way to appease angry Palestinians in the West Bank. Netanyahu also wants to prevent a famine for which he might be held accountable internationally. On the other hand, Hamas is cornered. It has nothing to lose anymore. The policy Israel is undertaking is very foolish. When you push your enemy into a corner, you are pushing them to fight to the death. For Hamas, this is do or die. Israel is adamant on going into Rafah. In Rafah, a small area of 64 sq. km, 1.5 million people are concentrated. The fighting will be brutal and will result in thousands of casualties. It might also result in the killing of the hostages. Facing the demand of the US and Israel to provide a list of the surviving hostages, Hamas said that it is difficult to do so because of the bombardment and the loss of communication. Its offer stated that the prisoner exchange would commence one week after the start of the ceasefire.
Israel is adamant about eliminating key Hamas leaders like Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif and Marwan Issa. However, what will be the scenario that results from such a maximalist policy, which is focused on destroying Hamas? Israel is not thinking about what might happen to the hostages. What if, facing Israel’s uncompromising attitude, Hamas kills them? If Hamas’ leaders are killed, the hostages are killed and Israel takes over Gaza, what situation would Israel face? It would have to deal with a mess it could not handle. Besides administering Gaza, it would have to deal with an Israeli society angry and divided over the killing of the hostages. So, Israel’s aim, which is to kill all Hamas leaders, will ensure there is no happy ending for anyone. What the US and Israel are hoping is for Qatar and Egypt to pressure Hamas. However, these two states cannot pressure Hamas and come across as accomplices with Israel in mass murder. They will not accept being seen as agents for Israel. If they pressure Hamas to call it quits, they need to offer the Palestinian people something substantial that goes beyond a ceasefire. It should be some kind of fulfillment of their aspirations, such as the recognition of a Palestinian state or an irreversible pathway to one. This way, Qatar and Egypt can come across as the facilitators of a fair solution.
The US, Israel’s main enabler, has been a major hurdle in finding a solution. Instead of pressuring Israel, it is trying to contain Arab states’ discontent. This will not work. The situation will spiral out of control. Already, children and the elderly are dying of hunger in Gaza. They are planning to build a port to deliver aid, but it could be two months before it is operational. Seriously? In two months, the entire population of Gaza could be dead from hunger. Instead of claiming that “the ball is in Hamas’ court” and putting the blame on Hamas, which is the weaker party, the US would be better off pressuring Israel, the stronger party, which has the ability to end the war. President Joe Biden should also take the “uncommitted” vote seriously. As much as pro-Israel donor money is important to him, the uncommitted vote could make him lose the upcoming election. The premise that the prospect of another Donald Trump presidency will jolt the Arab American and Muslim American communities into voting for Biden does not hold. They will make Biden lose. This is why this administration should start taking serious actions against the Netanyahu government.
An invasion of Rafah would be catastrophic for everyone. Instead of acquiescing to Israeli rejectionism, the US should pressure Israel into accepting a permanent ceasefire. In return for accepting Hamas’ conditions, which the group says are nonnegotiable, the negotiators can ask the group to call it quits. Coupled with this demand should be an international promise to recognize a Palestinian state – a recognition that is not subject to an Israeli veto. This would give Hamas a graceful exit. It would come across like it scarified itself as a political entity for the well-being of the Palestinian people. Of course, such a deal should include a safe exit for the leadership. However, bloodthirsty Israel is unlikely to accept such a reasonable scheme and the ideological Biden is showing no willingness to pressure Israel. In the end, mark my words, Israel will be the biggest loser.
Arab News
