Richard Galant
The Platte River flows eastward through Nebraska at depths far too shallow for shipping. “In some places it is a mile wide and three-quarters of an inch deep,” the writer Edgar Nye said in 1889, coining a phrase still in use. Last week, as former President Donald Trump’s legal troubles continued to mount, so did a fundamental question about the 2024 Republican presidential campaign. Is Trump’s support in the GOP rock-solid, as suggested by the many party figures who rushed to his defense and the fans who attended his rally Saturday – or is it only a mile wide and an inch deep?
If prosecutors in New York City, Atlanta and Washington bring any charges against him – and there’s no assurance they will – would it strengthen his support or complicate and potentially weaken his campaign for the Republican nomination? So far, Trump is leading the pack in early primary polling and could even see his numbers grow if he is arrested – as he predicted last weekend. That arrest has not happened.
“The danger facing Republicans is that they will either have to bind themselves even tighter to the mast of an intensely polarizing figure, or risk splitting the party by not coming out in his defense,” wrote Patrick T. Brown. “Navigating between those pitfalls will require some willingness to criticize Trump,” he added. “The more daring Republicans may try to ding Trump for his seamy behavior even while attacking the politicized prosecution. One of Trump’s presumed rivals for the nomination, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, took a not-so-veiled shot at the former president’s behavior,” Brown noted.
“I don’t know what goes into paying hush money to a porn star to secure silence over some type of alleged affair,” DeSantis said even as he accused Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg of “pursuing a political agenda and weaponizing the office.” If Trump is prosecuted, he could reap short-term gains, wrote Republican strategist Karl Rove in the Wall Street Journal. “An indictment would likely provoke many MAGA Republicans to rally around Mr. Trump, at least temporarily. His standing in 2024 GOP primary polls might improve as a shoddy case from a left-wing district attorney is likely to anger partisans,” but Rove added, “Mr. Trump’s strategy appears to focus exclusively on winning the votes of true believers. But many are suffering Trump fatigue and there weren’t enough of them to re-elect him last time.”
“The most probable result of his current ranting and raving will be to convince more Republicans that he’s unelectable.” Still, Trump “thrives on media attention,” observed Julian Zelizer. “This is his major weapon in political combat. He loves to dominate the news cycle, redirect national conversations, lash out at his enemies and eclipse all other issues.”
“It doesn’t seem to matter that much of the attention is negative. As president, reality television star and real estate mogul, Trump has cast himself as a fighter who has warded off individuals and institutions that he claims are out to get him.
This is an essential part of his political persona: the aggrieved public figure who is at perpetual war with the world around him.” On Saturday, Trump held his first rally since announcing he is running for president again. The location: Waco, Texas. As Nicole Hemmer pointed out, “the rally coincides with the 30th anniversary of a siege just outside of Waco between religious extremists, a sect known as the Branch Davidians led by David Koresh, and the federal government. The 51-day standoff began in February 1993 and ended in mid-April with a fire that killed 76 people, including 25 children … For three decades, the city’s name has been a touchstone for groups who see the federal government not just as a problem but as the central enemy in a slow-rolling civil war.”
“In choosing Waco as the kickoff site for his campaign rallies, Trump has signaled that his courtship of extremist groups will continue, and that he sees his role as a pivotal figure in the far-right mythos as central to his efforts to retake the presidency,” Hemmer observed. A spokesperson for Trump said Waco was selected because it is conveniently located “to have as many supporters from across the state and in neighboring states attend this historic rally.”
CNN
