Tug of war in BAP: Replay of political instability in Balochistan?

Samand M. Shahi

At a time when there are calls for unity, cooperation and joint action around the globe to deal with the situation created by the Covid-19 pandemic, the government of Balochistan faces rifts within the ruling Balochistan Awami Party. Recently, five MPAs of the party including three ministers, expressed dissatisfaction at being sidelined in decision-making. The group also threatened to resign from ministries if their demands were not met.

Meanwhile, other groups also held meetings to exert pressure on the chief minister and seize the opportunity to get political favors. Eventually, as usual, matters were apparently settled when party senators intervened with whatever prescription they had brought from Islamabad.

The provincial government has continuously been dealing with ambitious plots set by groups from within the party since the incumbent chief minister Jam Kamal Alyani assumed office. Earlier this year, differences intensified between speaker Balochistan Assembly Abdul Quddus Bizenjo and chief minister when the former threatened to unseat the chief minister and submitted a privilege motion against CM, Finance Minister and a Senator — all belonging to his party BAP. The party faced similar situations on the nomination of Chief Minister, Speaker, cabinet, senators and other political appointments. Whenever there is an opportunity for the party it gives rise to internal divisions.

To interpret the political game of snakes and ladders within BAP, it is critical to understand its formation and composition. There are 51 general seats in Balochistan Assembly. Out of these, 9 seats are ‘safe’ which are continuously held by certain families, while the seats held mostly by some electables are even greater in number. Most of the members elected on such seats are always part of the ruling coalitions formed in the province. They either join the parties expected to form the government, or otherwise may even switch entire parties into coalitions which are otherwise infeasible in mainstream politics of that period.

This time, however, their political handlers changed the scheme. They were facilitated to form a party of their own, uniting such power-seekers under one umbrella — resultantly BAP was formed in March 2018. If BAP had not been formed most of these people would have joined PTI.

The circumstances in which the party was formed, launched it as the upcoming king’s party. Recruitment started in the party with full intensity. Such was the enthusiasm that not only the dissidents from PMLN and other parties joined it, the PMLQ MPAs also parted ways with their party without any dissent and joined BAP. Many political rivals had to join the same party either before elections given the political forecast or after defeating BAP candidates in general elections. Besides electables, 7 safe seat holders are also part of BAP. These include members elected on those 4 safe seats which have been part of all the three no-confidence moves against chief ministers in Balochistan. In each instance they were also part of the government that was toppled and twice they emerged as the succeeding leaders of the house. One such seat is held by Jam Kamal himself, the other 3 seats are those held by Sardar Saleh Bhootani, Mir Tariq Magsi and Mir Jan Muhammad Jamali.

The party is nonfunctional. It has 9 vice presidents but the hierarchy is ineffective. BAP lacks an ideology or a nonexclusive collective political goal that could hold it together. Practically, it is working as an alliance of electables. Every group in the party is desperate for a greater share in power.

Those who have privileges strive for more, while those who do not have a say are upset why the others have it. Each rivals sees other’s success and influence as a threat to his position. Many people in the party want to fly high but they feel they are not as free as they used to be. They feel uncomfortable in a set up where their demands, whether justified or unjustified, are not fulfilled. In such conditions they will not miss any chance to destabilize the government from within to realize their ambitions, but in the present state of affairs they do not have the privilege of free play. To bring a change they need a signal from the centers of power in the country, but for now, signals remain ‘Jammed’. Jam Kamal, the party president and chief minister, is well aware of the real source of his power.

He usually avoids paying heed to the demands, ultimatums and threats coming from enraged opponents because he knows that in Pakistan’s political arena when the ‘umpires’ raise their finger, one has to return to the pavilion no matter how many players have confidence in him. On the contrary if umpires allow you to play, no one can oust you from power.

samandkhan@yahoo.com