Yasar Yakis
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan last week paid a visit to Germany, and met both President Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Gaza was one of the important issues on which they exchanged views.
Both German leaders said in unequivocal words that they blamed Hamas for what is happening now in Gaza. Erdogan’s efforts were not sufficient to soften their attitude. He referred to the Holocaust and claimed that Turkiye has no historical “luggage on its shoulders,” and, therefore, can act more even-handedly.
Both sides spelt out what they had in mind and felt relieved. However, at the end of the day, Germany is likely to be the winner, because it holds more trump cards. The decision to let Turkiye acquire a state-of-the-art air defense system is one of them.
Questioned by a journalist, Erdogan said that if a country threatens to refuse to supply Turkiye with the type of aircraft it needs, it may turn to others. This hypothesis is both correct and wrong at the same time. If you aim at the best quality air defense system, your choices will be limited.
The difficulty in acquiring the most suitable air defense system for Turkiye began with the US. Tired of the caprices of its NATO allies, Ankara decided in 2019 to buy a Russian-manufactured air defense system, the F-400. As later developments showed, this was a questionable choice, because although the Russian system was efficient, it did not match with the NATO system that the Turkish air force was equipped with.
As a reaction to Turkiye’s purchase of the Russian system, the US imposed curbs under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act. CAATSA was originally designed to ban the purchase of defense equipment from Russia, Iran and North Korea. However, it was extended to also cover the NATO ally Turkiye. It now includes a ban on selected US export licenses, asset freezes and visa restrictions for a number of Turkish officials involved in the development and manufacturing defense materials.
Ankara is unlikely to face an imminent external threat in air defense. However, thinking strategically, developing a concept of air defense, and implementing and concluding it may require decades. If Turkiye fails to take appropriate measures, its options will run out one after the other.
Turkiye is looking for a reliable air defense. Being a member of NATO is a strong guarantee, but Turkiye is regarded by several NATO member countries as a liability rather than an asset. The F-35 fighter aircraft was developed under the overall supervision of the US company Lockheed Martin and designed to meet NATO air defense requirements until the 2070s.
The US expelled Turkiye from the F-35 program, which is regarded as the most advanced air defense system. Ankara was not only a beneficiary of the project, but also an important contributor. Several components of the aircraft were being manufactured in Turkiye under the program. Furthermore, Turkiye had already committed to buying more than 100 fighters and had paid $1.4 billion. It is now in the process of dissolving one engagement after another.
When Turkiye’s dream was shattered after its expulsion from the F-35 program, it began seeking alternatives. The next-best option was to upgrade the F-16 fighter aircraft that were in the hand of the Turkish air force. Various figures were mentioned about the number of the aircraft to be upgraded, but the latest was 40.
Bob Menendez, chairman of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, did everything to block the plan to upgrade Turkiye’s fighter jets, but is now in deep trouble because of allegations that he took bribes from three New Jersey businessmen. We will see whether he continues to spoil Turkiye’s interests.
When difficulties arose regarding Turkiye’s purchase of US-manufactured aircraft, it turned to European markets. It is now negotiating with a consortium of countries to buy 40 Eurofighter Typhoon jets being manufactured by the UK, Germany, Spain and Italy. During parliamentary debates last week, Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler mentioned that contacts were underway for the purchase of these aircraft. Co-producers are the UK and Spain. Germany has not yet spelt out its final word. These talks coincided with the fluctuating relations between Turkiye and Germany, the Gaza crisis, cross-border operations with Syria, and criticisms voiced by Turkiye against the EU.
Bloomberg claimed that Erdogan would raise with the German chancellor the question of lifting Germany’s embargo of selling Eurofighter Typhoons to Turkiye. So far, nothing has been leaked to the media on this subject.
The aircraft was to be manufactured by a consortium of the British company BAE Systems in cooperation with German and Spanish firms, but this time the purchase was made conditional to Turkiye’s support for Sweden’s accession to NATO. On his way back from Berlin to Turkiye, Erdogan said that the German chancellor avoided any reference to the issue. That is to say he did not make any comment on whether Germany would agree to sell Eurofighter Typhoons to Turkiye. “If they agree to sell them, so much the better. If not, we have so many other options,” Erdogan said.
Hopefully, Turkiye will not commit another mistake by making a poor choice.
