Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib
The situation in the Middle East is getting out of control. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is unhinged in his genocidal war on Gaza. Despite several statements from the US State Department calling for restraint and for the limiting of civilian casualties, Israel is only accelerating its attacks. Iran, on the other hand, is attacking the US presence in the region. Three American troops were killed last month in an attack on the Tower 22 military base on the border between Jordan and Syria. Iran does not seem deterred by the US. Washington has reached a situation where it can neither influence its allies nor deter its enemies and this all comes back to one factor: America’s lack of resolve.
Having capabilities is not enough to project power. Capabilities without resolve are not effective. We have three cases in the Middle East: two of allies and one of an enemy. Israel is the ally that takes the US for granted. Not only that, but Netanyahu brags that Washington has no influence over Israel’s decisions. Israel is an embarrassment for the US. A small state whose population is about the same as New Jersey can snub the mighty United States of America.
At the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting last month, Secretary of State Antony Blinken called for a “pathway to a Palestinian state” and for cooperating with the Palestinian Authority. What was Israel’s response? Its Cabinet declared that “Israel utterly rejects international diktats regarding a permanent settlement with the Palestinians.” It used the word “utterly,” meaning the American proposition was not even subject to negotiations. On the other hand, Israel gets whatever it wants from the US. It is getting arms, money and support at the UN. So, the prevailing impression is that Israel is the one controlling the US, not the other way around. Basically, the attitude of Israel signals to allies that, even if it snubs the US, nothing will happen. It is allowed to jeopardize US interests in the Middle East.
This has affected the seriousness with which other players in the region view the US. Blinken has received a lukewarm reception from regional countries. When he visited Ankara in November, he was snubbed by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who was not available to meet with him. Leaders in the region are worried that the situation might get out of hand. They no longer see the US as being in control. This is why they are trying to seek solutions on their own, perhaps bypassing the US. After years of tumultuous relations, Gaza has brought Egypt and Turkiye together. Erdogan last week visited Cairo for the first time in more than a decade. Both Erdogan and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi have realized that they need to cooperate to take the situation into their own hands. The US attitude toward the Gaza massacre has affected its image. It is no longer perceived as the offshore balancer that can keep everyone in check.
The other type of US ally is the Arab Gulf states. They are actually in an opposite position to Israel. The US asks its Arab allies to take the American side, but in return it does not offer the support it should be offering when it is needed. This is not only with the Biden administration. This trend has been going since the Obama administration. Though Donald Trump, at the beginning of his presidency, tried to improve relations with the Gulf countries, his engagement did not materialize into real support. When Iran or its proxies used drones to attack the Abqaiq oil facility in Saudi Arabia in 2019, what was the US’ response? Nothing. This pushed the Arab Gulf states to make the rational decision to look for an alternative. America’s traditional friends are diversifying their alliances and, at times, cooperating with the US’ foes or entering into parallel organizations. The UAE has entered the BRICS bloc and Saudi Arabia is considering joining.
When these countries diversify their alliances, lending a helping hand to the US is no longer the priority. As they know they need to fend for themselves, they need to see a return for every favor they extend to the US. This is why America’s Gulf allies, except for Bahrain, did not take part in the coalition to tame the Houthis as a result of their attacks on ships in the Red Sea. They did not want to jeopardize the fragile entente they have with Iran in order to show solidarity with the US. The third case is the case of enemies. America’s lack of resolve buttresses its enemies. Iran knows that the US will not cross a threshold that will lead to a confrontation. Washington is more concerned with optics than with real deterrence.
Of course, striking Iran is not an option, as such an act would wreak havoc in the region. However, Iran, supposedly the US’ enemy, knows that there will be no repercussions for its actions. Tehran does not have the muscle that the US has, but it has the resolve that America lacks. It has consistency, while the US adopts a transactional policy. In Syria and Iraq, who has more influence, the US or Iran? The answer is obvious. US leaders should conduct some soul-searching and ask themselves: why are we not in control anymore? What have we done wrong? For sure, it is not a lack of capability, it is a lack of resolve. Unless the US shows some resolve, its influence will wane, if not now, then in a few years’ time.
Gaza presents an opportunity to demonstrate this resolve. The first step would be for America to stop Netanyahu, bring its allies onto the same page and push for a peace plan that can stabilize the region and offer the Palestinians a viable and sovereign state. Most importantly, the US needs to keep Iran in check so that it does not take advantage of this disastrous situation.
