Alexander Sharkovsky
The European Union failed to reconcile Baku and Yerevan on the sidelines of the sixth Eastern Partnership summit. Armenia was offered 2.4 billion euros, and Azerbaijan 140 million, to restore transport infrastructure and generally to support the economy. However, even this considerable amount of money did not convince the opponents to resolve all feuds amicably.
The stumbling block remains the opening of the Zangezur corridor connecting the main territory of Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan. To Yerevan, this corridor is like a bone in the throat. First, it cuts off Armenia from the border with Iran. Secondly, at the request of Baku, control over the corridor should be transferred to the Azerbai-jani side, which definitely does not suit Armenia.
The Zangezur corridor is important for Azerbaijan, which, by the way, will also be a direct land connection with Turkey. I remember Aliyev even threatened to seize him by force. However, this could not force Pashinyan to concede on this difficult issue for Armenia. What to expect now? Is there really going to be a new war? Baku has not tempered its fighting agility, especially since the recent victory in Karabakh encourages Aliyev. But, not everything is so simple. Azerbaijan restrains the position of Turkey, which is under pressure from the United States.
In addition, Moscow clearly shows that it will not tolerate a new war in the Transcaucasus and will take decisive measures if it breaks out. Alone, Baku is unlikely to dare to unleash new military actions against its western neighbor. Now the European Union is actively involved in the process of reconciliation between Pashinyan and Aliyev.
This is probably due to the position of France, which is home to an influential and large Armenian diaspora, and which now leads the EU in order of priority. In addition, an Armenian-Turkish summit is planned, where issues related to the economic interests of Ankara in the Transcaucasian region will be resolved. The position of Iran, which clearly takes the pro-Armenian side, is also important. Very tense relations have developed between Tehran and Baku due to the fact that Azerbaijan allows the Israeli Air Force to use its airfields for air operations against Iran.
By the way, the Zangezur corridor is also unprofitable for Tehran, which will hinder the economic ties between Armenia and Iran. Agree, the situation is a dead end. It seems that the state of “no peace, no war” in the region will remain as a status quo for an indefinite period of time.
