Ranvir S. Nayar
The world faces two crucial tests this year. Both will impact large parts of the planet, if not the entire world, and also have the potential to dictate its future. And though it is not yet evident to most people, these two tests are also closely linked, so much so that at least one of them will have a significant bearing on the outcome of the other.
The first test, which is already underway, is that of global democracy, as some 4.1 billion people in 76 countries will this year take part in elections to choose those who will represent them and formulate laws and policies for the next four or five years.
These elections are spread across almost every part of the world and electorates, from the smallest to the largest democracies, should be using this powerful right to determine the future of not just their own cities, regions or countries, but the entire globe. Alongside relatively small nations like Taiwan and Estonia, elections will also grip three of the world’s largest democracies: India, the EU and the US, which between them boast more than 2 billion people, or 25 percent of the global population. To the electorates and politicians in these nations, the outcomes of the polls will be crucial. Hence, the past few months have seen these societies increasingly preoccupied with the elections and their likely outcomes.
The second test that the world faces this year is even more potent and crucial than the test of democracies. While the elections will directly impact about half of the global population, the second test will not only impact every human being, but also every single form of life on Earth. This is the climate test and it is not a one-time exercise like casting a vote. Instead, it is a test that humanity has been facing and increasingly failing every year for the past four decades. Carbon emissions, pollution and the rapacious degradation of natural resources have led to record levels of global warming, which has been having a severe impact on the Earth’s climate, making it increasingly swing between extremes, from very hot to very cold and very dry to very wet.
Unfortunately, even though scientists have long been warning about the increasing threats the world faces due to climate change, human behavior has failed to adapt. Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels reached historic highs last May and are forecast to keep rising in 2024 – and at a much higher speed. Global temperatures were last year suspected to have crossed the threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial era, a red line that was drawn by the UN and underwritten by the Paris Agreement of 2015.
But with emissions rising and weather changes accelerating, it is predicted that, in the next five years – in time for many countries to have their next national elections – the face of the world and of humanity will no longer resemble what we see today. In the face of such a dire situation, one would have expected that 2024 would present a unique opportunity for world leaders to use their electoral campaigns and speeches to put climate change at the top of their political agendas. But so far, the climate crisis has remained absent from political discourses, whether in India, the US or even the EU, which has so far been the leader in terms of cutting carbon emissions.
By not talking of climate change, political leaders are shirking their responsibility to lead their nations toward the measures, which may be tough but are vital, that are needed to at least cut the pace at which global warming is increasing. By keeping climate change out of their discussions during the campaign, they also show exactly how seriously they take the challenge of climate change. While most people around the world regularly get to hear from their leaders and often lose interest, elections present a unique opportunity, as the attention of voters is particularly focused on the political discourse and politicians’ promises and vision for the country.
Instead of providing only a few dollars in cash as food or job subsidies to these people, politicians should create a policy to counter critical water shortages by giving tax breaks or subsidies for water harvesting and restoring natural water bodies or putting tax penalties on automobile and factory emissions. Societies would then gain far more through reduced health bills and the increased productivity of healthier and happier citizens. The only difference is that, unlike a $10 bill put straight in citizens’ pockets, they and their families might gain hundreds or even thousands of dollars over the course of a few years. Through these measures, both politicians and the people alike would attain what is good for them. It would cost the politicians nothing to link their measures to climate change and long-term national development.
By not focusing on climate change in their election campaigns, political leaders are doing themselves and the world a huge disservice. Elections, especially during a year like 2024, offer a unique opportunity to drive home the message of the impending climate disaster. Politicians should start by laying out how they, along with their citizens, plan to tackle it. Unfortunately, no leader has so far taken up the gauntlet.
