Eyad Abu Shakra
Two notable developments from last week deserve our attention. One is the Russian-Chinese veto against the US resolution at the UN Security Council regarding the displacement war in Gaza, and the other is the shooting attack on the outskirts of Moscow that left hundreds of casualties in its wake.
Conspiracy theories, which many in the Arab world are fond of, are premature. It would also be naive, however, to take at face value the statements of sympathy issued from most Western capitals following the attack. As for the fact that Daesh claimed responsibility so speedily for the operation, that is nothing more than another indication of its nature and operational intelligence structure.
However, let us first look into the background of the Russian-Chinese veto and the political message it sent. It came as no surprise that the two countries vetoed the American resolution, as Washington had previously rejected all previous calls to put an end to the massacres and displacement in Gaza. The US administration justified its position on the grounds that these calls did not condemn the Hamas attack of Oct. 7, did not demand the immediate and unconditional release of the Israelis who had been kidnapped by Hamas, and did not punish the movement by rooting it out as a military force and political authority.
What we know is that Washington’s terms are the same as the explicit conditions laid out by Israel. Since the principal being represented here, Israel, does not have the right to veto, the representative, Washington, took it upon itself to veto four ceasefire resolutions at the Security Council, including a proposal that included Russian amendments.
In the most recent vote, the US resolution was supported by 11 countries and opposed by three: Russia, China and Algeria (the only Arab country on the council currently), while Guyana abstained. Of course, the US representative criticized the Russian and Chinese stances as “ridiculous.” However, her Russian counterpart responded by saying that the US had done nothing to rein in Israel and that it was now speaking of a ceasefire after “Gaza has been virtually wiped off the face of the Earth … We have seen a typical hypocritical spectacle.” The Russian delegate went on to claim the American proposal was “highly politicized” and that its only goal was to appease US voters opposed to the ongoing war, and that it granted Israel immunity by not addressing its crimes.
The fact of the matter is that the international political climate exposed by the Gaza displacement war affirms that a post-unipolar era has begun. While it is premature to speak of the fall of the American Empire, we are seeing realignments, reassessments, and alliances reevaluated or forged anew. For example, Europe no longer accommodates countries that find a safe haven in neutrality. We now see these countries rushing to join NATO. Another example is the collapse of the broad areas of consensus that had been the pillars upon which Western democracies, especially in Europe and its venerable political traditions, have long stood.
However, outside of Europe, which had been the strategic stage of the Cold War era and home to the countries of the Warsaw Pact and NATO, we now see centers of power emerging, and new crises threatening to shake the international frameworks. Likewise, some entities in the Middle East and beyond are revisiting the question of the primary mover. Is it the US or Israel through their respective influential American and European lobbies?
Asia is home to two of the world’s largest countries, India and China, which are both members of BRICS. Changes to this grouping could be inevitable if India continues its gradual shift from a parliamentary democratic system and a pluralistic state comprising dozens of ethnicities and languages to an ethno-religious dictatorship where minorities are marginalized and potentially persecuted.
The implications of the shift, which is already underway and accelerating, could become evident in the upcoming elections. So far, however, major Western powers have not voiced any reservations about the policies of India’s leader Narendra Modi, despite the fact that the situation has been aggravated and needs to be addressed.
Moreover, both India and China have ambitious foreign projects to forge global alliances founded on interests. Given the rapid rise of China as a technological, economic, military, and political power, the West has remained silent about Modi’s policies. And some suggest that Western capitals – led by Washington, of course – will have no choice in the future but to rely on India as a counterbalance to China.
Going back to Europe, the tsar in the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin, predictably won a new mandate after the Ukraine war stirred Slavic sentiments and awakened Russia’s historic sense of being targeted and besieged. The war in Ukraine has provided Putin with a strong justification to tighten his grip domestically before settling his scores outside the country’s borders. The theater of a Daesh attack – exported to Moscow last week – served as a reminder of this to Russia and compounded its apprehensions of being under siege.
Indeed, what the Kremlin has done in Syria since 2011 is not very different from what the Israeli war machine has done and continues to do in Palestine. Back then, it was said that Moscow did not see a Syrian nation in pain, but a Western attempt to expand at its expense, especially after it had been pushed out of Libya. However, it is also true that the lives, fate and future of the Palestinians mean nothing to Washington. In the calculations of the major powers and their vetoes, the people always come last.
Arab News
