Chris Doyle
Where does all this horror end up? Will there be a Gaza Strip when all is finished? Ever since Oct. 7, nobody has a clue – including, it seems, the Israeli Cabinet – what defines a victory? All the focus is on the short-term mass bombardment of Gaza with zero consideration for the long term. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu talks about a long war, not least because his only avenue for political survival is as a war leader.
Without a clear endgame, Israel will lose again in Gaza. It might defeat Hamas, but it cannot eradicate it. Militarily, Israel will pulverize Gaza, but where does that leave the situation? This has been the result of each of Israel’s six wars against Gaza and also its wars against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel has demonstrated its destructive military capabilities, which were never in doubt. Yet it has also highlighted massive political vulnerabilities that its opponents feed off. It wins the military battle but loses the political war. This is why Gaza has been occupied for 56 years and under blockade for 16, as well as why Israel has never got close to achieving any degree of security. If you foment hatred, bitterness and despair, Hamas and other groups will feed off that as they always have done. Hamas may grow more powerful in the West Bank. Is Israel going to turn that into Gaza too? The reality is that, when Palestinians enjoy real freedom, security and prosperity, they will be far more attracted to other political forces.
Even the US in Iraq understood the need to try to win over the civilian population. That its attempts were inept, lacked any real conviction, were backed with few resources and lacked a proper so-called hearts and minds strategy was a key part of why America failed so dismally. It too won militarily but it has yet to recover from the political humiliation. Hamas believes that somehow surviving the Israeli onslaught would be a victory; that if its leaders can peek out from beneath the mountains of rubble – the only mountains in Gaza – this would constitute a success. Hamas also has no credible endgame, but that should surprise nobody. That it should play no future political or military role in Gaza is widely agreed internationally, but how that might be achieved is simply not laid out. An agreed Hamas withdrawal from Gaza may be desirable but unlikely.
This is one reason why an immediate ceasefire matters. It is why US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was wrong to reject it once again last week, as he disagreed in public with senior Arab counterparts. The longer Israel continues to obliterate Gaza, the harder any political solution becomes. Regional powers will also be less willing to contribute to reconstruction in Gaza. Why should regional powers risk any of their citizens in any future peacekeeping force when the Israeli onslaught makes such a mission harder and harder? The longer the carpet bombing continues, the greater the trauma each and every Palestinian in Gaza suffers. Just how difficult does Israel want to make it to govern Gaza? Israelis will still have to live with 5 million to 6 million Palestinians, either as Palestinian citizens of Israel or Palestinians in the Occupied Territories, including Gaza. Israel will still have Arab states as neighbors, whose populations are watching in horror at the unfolding slaughter.
The international community needs to shape the outcome and that starts now. Let us imagine that Hamas is no longer in power in Gaza. What sort of interim authority could be established? Which states might be willing to contribute to a peacekeeping force? The option of direct Israeli military occupation, where the jailers move from the perimeter of the Strip to inside, would be hugely costly. If an interim authority is established, how long would it last? What would be the long-term arrangements? The Palestinian Authority in Ramallah has quite rightly rejected any notion that it would take over Gaza on the back of Israeli planes and tanks, wary of being viewed as complicit in Israel’s crushing of the Strip.
Legitimacy can only come from the people of Gaza. Those who think you can substitute Israeli occupation for a different occupier are deluded. Municipal elections could be a starting point. This would allow the technical day-to-day running of the Strip to be in the hands of the people who live there, with inputs of funds and advice from the UN, given the challenge. But full, free and fair Palestinian elections for one single national authority must follow. The last ones were held in 2006. The current Palestinian leadership lacks electoral legitimacy. This would be an opportunity to address one of the significant barriers to a political process. Negotiations have to be shown to deliver proper results for Palestinians in a way they never did in the Oslo years. This is what Hamas traded off: mocking Fatah for having got nothing in return for years of talking.
Will Israel allow elections? It will demand that Hamas does not participate, but reasonable stipulations could be made ruling out any candidates that call for attacks on civilians. This is where the international community has to be firm. Israel must not get in the way of credible Palestinian elections – and these must also, as the Oslo Accords stipulated, take place in East Jerusalem. Without a normal economic life and without freedom, Gaza will remain a hellhole and will never be quiet. It will have to be rebuilt, the rubble cleared and the unexploded ordnance removed. A fund should be established immediately and Israel should contribute. This must also be contingent on ending the Israeli siege and allowing all materials in, not least to build a proper water and sewage system. It must mean permitting Palestinians in Gaza to travel freely after the conflict, not least to the West Bank. It must finally mean the establishment of safe passage to the West Bank as agreed under the Oslo Accords, which also provided for a port and airport for Gaza. Gazan fishermen must be allowed to fish freely.
The West Bank also cannot be ignored as it has been. The Israeli settlement enterprise needs tackling. For too long, the international community has ignored this issue, copy and pasting the same old press releases telling of its concern. Settlements are illegal and this whole program must be ended. In the short term, Palestinian communities forced out by settler violence must be allowed to return to their villages and live in peace and security. Ignore this and there can be no peace. International statesmen are only now beginning to discuss the long-term solutions needed to address the underlying issues. After previous wars, these never materialized. They must this time and the sooner this starts in earnest the better.
Arab News
