Mohammad Ali Zafar
Geopolitics determines the course of future warfare. It unfolds multifaceted dimensions which incorporate different sets of questions to understanding the evolving world. The US, as the world hegemon, is eager to understand different geopolitical threats to the US position in different regions. At the same time, it incorporates the idea of military readiness and how US policymakers will respond to these challenges from different adversaries thus raising the ante over geopolitical challenges.
Within geopolitical calculations of the US it is important to first unmask the underling domestic imperatives which provide the grounds for states future endeavors. The idea of political cohesion cannot be sidelined for which the evaluation of polarization and retrenchment within the domestic political setup of the US must be understood. To achieve state’s ends, it is important to have public’s faith in the political setup but with the evolution of world politics, Americans are questioning the political motives of Democrats and Republicans – which will unleash a decisive blow to US policy orientation as a ‘world hegemon’. This requires the US to have internal cohesion, but the domestic political structure segregated by right-wing, left-wing and elitist scales has clashed with the US ambitious agenda abroad.
Historically, general public’s faith over Vietnam’s offense and Intervention in Libya painted the opinion of slackening support for US military actions abroad. This highlighted the very little or no faith in US military actions abroad from the domestic political system as well as from the general masses. These factors highlight how a gridlock is created between US policy making and general faith of public which leads to disillusionment and less support for US actions abroad as a global superpower, thus creating a power vacuum for other powers. It could even limit American’s appetite for use of convectional force for which Afghanistan is the recent case.
While understating US geopolitical calculations and emerging geopolitical realities, China has posed serious apprehensions for US foreign policy choices. China’s Rise, for some scholars, is leading towards a new cold war between the US and China. China’s engagement in US sphere of influence will have implications for US foreign policy options which is evident from China’s aim to displace the US in the Indo-Pacific region, so to fulfill its domestic economic needs, thus aiming to drive the region in its favor. Similarly, the rise of China has raised the Asian debate over policy options, especially strategic choices available against the China’s rise. These states have two options, either to balance our or bandwagon with China.
Domestic imperatives, pacifying resistant populations in Xinjiang and Tibet, controlling Taiwan, and Chinese claim in the East and the South China Sea are few of the most vital geopolitical drivers of China’s prioritization of growing military ambitions. The US grumbles will increase as China is eager to materialize these objectives hence the US geopolitical calculations must be revisited. They must be shaped to understand US counteractive options against China’s rise once China’s offensive deterrence strategy will be in action.
Similar to China’s rise there is an increasing need for Washington to recalibrate its foreign policy cards in Asia. For the US, Asia is turning to be a cockpit of great power conflicts. The mixed regimes in Asia – democratic and authoritarian system – filled with a historical difference along with territorial disputes turn the region into a geopolitical hotspot. Nationalism, China’s rise, global terrorism, economic urges, and many others are the rising concerns which are directly linked with US geo-strategic and geo-economic interest vis-à-vis its partnerships with regional actors. Holistically speaking, US hostility towards China has turned Asia as another geopolitical chessboard for great power politics where US policymakers will be eager to play.
Despite emerging challenges for US foreign policy, revanchist Russian factor cannot be shelved. The confrontation with the old nemesis is viewed under the Russian urge for a multipolar world where Russia is aiming regain its lost role as a superpower. This approach of Russian will open three major concerns for the US. First is the intensification of Russian threat towards NATO for which its recent step to annex Crimea is just a pawn in the rise of Gibridnaya Voyna –Russian hybrid warfare tactics. Secondly, Russia consistently blamed the US for the color revolutions to undermine legitimate regimes. Lastly, Russia wants to expand its economic and political influence through the Eurasian economic union to expand its influence over the Eurasian landmass. Putin’s hawkish approach will impact the US influential role in different regions, so for this, US must avoid any miscalculation which will energize Russian reassertion in world politics.
Is Russian re-emergence a threat to Europe? Even if it’s not, the US views it to be the case. Emerging challenges for Europe which includes migration, terrorism, and political turmoil will lead to an uncertain future. Absorbed by these challenges, Europe’s future could be daunted with growing Russian influence thus challenging US foreign policy options in region. Thus, the muddling future catalyzed with Brexit, could lead to a domino effect. If this is the case, then regional geopolitics will observe a shift. This could divide Europe over how to deal with resurgent Russian – an area of concern for the US.
Additionally, since the 2001 terrorist attack, US security policies have observed a bend towards the role of non-state actors. This is due to the rise in terrorist activities, instability, and festering interstate tensions in different parts of the world, especially in the Middle East. To counter this, other than the military response, the US views it as its responsibility to spread democratic values, which will counter religious fervor and political inclusiveness. There is less likelihood for Islamic world to end this turmoil instead they will last perhaps a decade or even more. It is evident from historical connotations such as the Iran-Iraq war, Gulf war, 2011 Arab spring, Terrorist groups, and sectarian infused interstate competition between Iran and Saudi Arabia which will remain to be the case in near future. This paves the way for the US to maintain its regional influence while understanding the geopolitical veracities.
Conclusively, the US role in stabilizing these regions is vital while understanding the geopolitical power structure of the world. Taking the aforementioned details into considering it is clear that the US will face deepening strategic impasses regarding how to engage with these states who are willing to challenge the liberal-based international order. Henceforth, the geopolitical calculus points to darker times ahead therefore the debate elongates for the future of world politics
