Peter Akopov
Germany has made up its mind on its choice: it wants a change of parties in power.
The elections to the Bundestag ended in victory for the Social Democrats: the oldest German party received almost 26 percent of the vote, 1.6 points ahead of its senior partner in the current CDU / CSU coalition . The very small gap should not be embarrassing: a few months ago, the SPD’s ratings dropped to 16-18 percent, and for the CDU, the current result is the worst in its history. By the way, for the first time two “people’s parties” are a self-name, because in the last century they always had an absolute majority of 80-90 percent – together they received less than half of the votes – 49.8.
But now, even with 25.7 percent, SPD leader Olaf Scholz can confidently celebrate victory – moreover, according to polls, they want to see him as chancellor much more than the head of the CDU Armin Lashet . However, Chancellor Scholz’s office is not guaranteed: on the way to it, he will need to assemble a coalition, and a three-party one, that is, to persuade two parties at once, which took third and fourth places in these elections.
As the head of the SPD said, six people sat down to play – three of them won, three lost. Scholz meant that it is the three winners who should become the new government – those who have increased their votes compared to the 2017 elections. And this is just the SPD, the Greens and the Free Democratic Party – their coalition is called “Traffic Light” (after the colors of the parties).
“Greens” have added the most in four years – they have plus 5.8 percent. But the final 14.8 is much less than what they counted on in the spring and summer, when their ratings reached almost 30 percent. Even in the last month they were promised around 17 – so they don’t have much joy now. Although they became the third party in the country and are guaranteed to enter the government. The only question is – in coalition with whom?
With the left SPD close to them? Yes, but for the majority in the Bundestag they need a third. Theoretically, there was a variant of the formation of a red-green-red coalition – but the “Left” performed poorly in the elections, having rec-eived almost half the votes, and they will have only 39 deputies in the Bundestag. In total, the three parties have only 363 – five fewer seats than the parliamentary majority needs.
So you have to persuade the liberals from the FDP – and they have very big requests. The FDP did not improve its result much, gaining 11.5 percent (plus 0.7), but it understands that a lot depends on it. The matter will not be limited to a few posts in the government – it will also require fundamental concessions on economic issues.
Moreover, the FDP leader Christian Lindner has already suggested that the Greens hold inter-party consultations – before starting negotiations with the SPD or the CDU. That is, Linder wants the “Greens” and the liberals, who have a total of 214 seats in parliament (which is more than the SPD and the CDU / CSU), act in a consolidated manner – and thus achieve big concessions from the “popular” parties. The idea is beautiful – but difficult to implement, given the ideological differences between the Greens and the liberals.
At the same time, Lindner said that the new government will have to pay more attention to the environment, and at the same time he likes the CDU / CSU program:
“I have read all the party programs, and when you do it, it will become clear that the CDU / CSU and the FDP have the biggest coincidences in content. This is what I said before the elections, and I definitely want to repeat this after the elections.” That is, the head of the FDP openly spoke out for a tripartite coalition of Christian Democrats, Greens and liberals called Jamaica – the colors of the parties form the flag of this Caribbean country. That is, Scholz will not become chancellor – and the government will be headed by the losing Laschet?
No, everything is not simple – because for such a coalition it is necessary to persuade the “Greens”, and they clearly gravitate towards the Social Democrats (from whose left wing they spun off in due time). In addition, they already tried to create Jamaica in 2017 – then it took several months, but it all ended in failure (including because of the position of Lindner himself).
That is, now the coalition talks will again come to a standstill?
Both Scholz and Laschet will conduct formal and behind-the-scenes bidding – both of them have a chance to become chancellor. But at the same time, Scholz’s positions are much more advantageous – for him both the first place in the elections and personal popularity. And even such an important factor as the party affiliation of the President of the Federal Republic of Germany Frank-Walter Steinmeier: yes, formally the head of the German state is already non-partisan, but everyone remembers that he was a social democrat, and very popular.
After the 2017 elections, it was President Steinmeier who played a big role in the formation of the last government of Merkel – when negotiations on the formation of Jamaica finally failed, he convinced his former party members to agree to return to the grand coalition format (and they really did not want to continue working with Merkel). Now Steinmeier will definitely play on Scholz’s side.
By the way, Scholz has now won a seat in the Bundestag by defeating Annalena Berbock – that is, one candidate for Chancellor won the election over another (for the first time in the history of Germany). Scholz scored 34 percent in Potsdam – against 19 for Berbock. But the most interesting thing is that the Potsdam district is located in Brandenburg – and in this East German land, the Alternative for Germany remained the second party, and the CDU fell into third place (and in another East German land, the anti-elite ADG became the first – even ahead of the SPD).
The CDU generally lost in 14 out of 16 lands – despite the fact that four years ago it lost first place in only two. This is, of course, a rout. Laschet’s party lost even in his native land – in North Rhine – Westphalia it was bypassed by the SPD. Laschet’s unpopularity formally, of course, cannot prevent him from becoming chancellor – if the intrigues against Scholz with his “traffic lights” are successful and the Greens will be able to convince them that they will be fine in Jamaica.
But in reality, it is not in the interests of the German elite to complicate an already difficult situation, in fact, imposing an unwanted successor on the country, Merkel. The voters spoke in favor of a change in the composition of the ruling coalition – therefore, one can confidently assume that after long bargaining, Olaf Scholz will be able to form a “traffic light” government (the liberals from the FDP will have to give up their principles).
It will, of course, be weaker than Merkel’s – simply because a coalition of three is less stable than a two-party one. And one of the junior partners can always betray – and bring the opposition to power. The CDU had already come to power in this way – in 1982, having overthrown the government of the Social Democrats with the help of defectors from the FDP (in those years, however, there were only three parties in the Bundestag).
So now “parties without Merkel” are even profitable not to cling to power, but to go into opposition – to come to their senses after saying goodbye to Angela and a huge number of their former voters.
On the opposition benches, by the way, they will be awaited by the “Alternative for Germany” – formed ten years ago just by the Christian democrats who became disillusioned with Merkel.
