Natalia Azarova
So far, no one speaks openly about the ex-ploitation of Antarc-tica’s mineral resources, but in 2048 the Madrid Protocol should be revised, and the current status quo is unlikely to remain. And then several scenarios are possible.
The Antarctic Treaty turns 60 this year. Around the South Pole region there are no such violent international disputes as around the North Pole, but the competition of world powers is also making itself felt there. Today’s picture, with each country trying to expand its influence in Antarctica, resembles the state of affairs in the Arctic ten years ago. As in the north, in the south China has become the most dynamic power in recent years, and in Antarctica it is building a partnership with Russia in order to strengthen its position in the growing contradictions with the United States.
International territory
Antarctica, which includes Antarctica itself and the adjacent waters of three oceans with islands located there, has always attracted the attention of world powers. Even in the last century, disputes over the possession of this vast territory threatened to escalate into a major international conflict. Australia, Argentina, Great Britain, New Zealand, Norway, France and Chile have claimed rights to certain sectors of Antarctica.
Tensions were eased when 12 countries signed the Antarctic Treaty in 1959 . He declared Antarctica a peaceful zone and froze all territorial claims – it became impossible neither to challenge the claims of the participants, nor to confirm his sovereignty over the sectors.
Now 54 states have joined the Treaty . He also has several important applications, including protocol error, which prohibits any activity in Antarctica, mineral resource Environmental Protection (Madrid Protocol) in 1991, except for scientific research.
For a long time the most active states in Antarctica were Australia, the USA, European countries and Russia, but in recent years China has begun to play an increasingly prominent role.
He joined the Antarctic Treaty only in 1983 and since then has managed to conduct nearly four dozen Antarctic expeditions, built four research stations, and plans to open another by 2022 (for comparison: the United States has three , Australia has four. , Russia has five ). The Chinese station Kunlun is located on the Argus ice dome – the highest ice massif in Antarctica and the best place on the planet for astronomical observations.
The Chinese polar fleet consists of two icebreakers. The United States has the same number of working icebreakers , but both are in poor condition. Russia has four icebreakers, and nuclear ones, but they also knew better times.
China plans to acquire its own nuclear – powered icebreaker , but the timing of its commissioning is still unknown. Judging by the characteristics, it will be inferior to the latest Russian icebreakers of the LK-60Ya type, but it will give China valuable experience in the creation and operation of ships of this class, as well as in the production of nuclear power plants that can then be used on nuclear aircraft carriers.
Beijing, of course, understands that it is still impossible to claim its rights to the Antarctic territories, and mining there will be prohibited for a long time (China ratified the Madrid Protocol in 1998), but it is still expanding its presence in the region, investing in research, infrastructure and logistics. From 2001 to 2016, China’s investment in the Antarctic research program amounted to 310 million yuan ($ 48.5 million). Even during the pandemic, China, unlike the US, UK and Australia, did not suspend its projects in Antarctica.
Chinese targets
Antarctica for China is not as important as the Arctic, which is closer and offers much more opportunities. Nevertheless, expanding its presence at the South Pole is another way to confirm its status as a truly global power.
Officially, the main goal of China in Antarctica is scientific research: in astronomy, glaciology and geology, weather observation. Without this, it is impossible to maintain a presence on the “mainland of science”.
Also, China carries tourists to Antarctica – in this area it came in second after the United States. Among those who visited Antarctica in the 2019/20 season were 36% of Americans (27,000) and 11% of Chinese (8,000). Despite the high cost (in 2018, the tour cost about $ 7-15 thousand), this destination is popular among wealthy Chinese, who even hold weddings there.
Finally, fishing. Fishing for Antarctic krill is China’s main target in the region at the moment. These crustaceans are valuable raw materials for the food industry, biotechnology and pharmacology. By 2023, the world’s largest krill trawler will be built for the Chinese company Shanghai Chonghe Marine Industry .
In the long term, Antarctica is of interest to Beijing for its rich mineral resources. On the mainland, there are deposits of gold, coal, iron ore, copper, zinc, nickel, lead and, most importantly, hydrocarbons. According to preliminary estimates, the Ross Sea region alone contains about 50 billion barrels of oil and more than 100 trillion cubic meters of gas.
So far, no one speaks openly about the exploitation of Antarctica’s mineral resources, but in 2048 the Madrid Protocol should be revised, and the current status quo is unlikely to remain.
Several scenarios are possible here. The global energy shortage could push countries to allow the extra-ction of Antarctic resour-ces, which, due to global warming, will become more accessible. Or countries will adopt an entirely new agreement to govern their Antarctic activities. It cannot be ruled out that the ban will be revised without waiting for 2048.
Since the 2000s, China has been criticizing the Antarctic Treaty, calling it a “club of the rich,” where the Chinese are discriminated against . When the PRC joined the treaty, it had neither an Antarctic program, nor qualified specialists, nor economic opportunities. This is not so now
In 2017, the State Oceanic Administration of the People’s Republic of China first published a White Paper entitled “China’s Activities in Antarctica”. In it, in addition to declarations of commitment to the peaceful use of Antarctic territories and protection of the treaty, there is an indicative passage: China “is ready, together with the international community, to create a fairer and more logical international order in Antarctica.” It is possible that China is counting on the redistribution of rights and even territories in the region.
Partners and rivals
The growing activity of China makes other powers, which began to settle in Antarctica much earlier, to determine their attitude towards it. Australia claims 42% of the continent and has long been Beijing’s main research partner in the region. Since Xi Jinping’s 2014 visit to the Australian state of Tasmania, its capital, Hobart, has become the main gateway to Antarctica for Chinese expeditions.
Another important and convenient port for the Chinese was New Zeala-nd’s Christchurch. Howe-ver, since the PRC’s relations with Australia and New Zealand began to det-eriorate, the scale of their cooperation in Antarctica has also declined.
Realizing that relying only on the countries of Oceania is too risky, China in 2019 began negotiations with Chile on access to the port of Punta Arenas and showed interest in the Argentine port of Ushuaia, through which Chinese tourists are already traveling to Antarctica.
China also sees Russia as an important ally. In 2017, the Russian Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute of Roshydromet and the State Administration for Arctic and Antarctic Affairs under the Oceanological Administration of the PRC signed a Memorandum of Cooperation in Antarctica. The two Chinese stations are located near the Russian ones, so the countries agreed to join forces to carry out some research and logistics operations.
Russia and China are also coordinating positions on regulatory issues. In November 2020, at a meeting of the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) in Australia, they (not for the first time) blocked three proposals for the creation of new protected areas around Antarctica: in East Antarctica, in the Weddell Sea and off the coast of the Antarctic Peninsula. It is not difficult to block proposals, since the Antarctic Treaty requires consensus on any issue, that is, for a decision to be made, the consent of all countries is required.
China believes that new protected areas are not needed because the fisheries licensing and monitoring system is already effective. From Beijing’s point of view, the international community should focus on monitoring the already established zones in order to assess how realistic their positive impact is.
Looseness or revision
Australia and its allies view the blocking of conservation zone initiatives and other Russian-Chinese actions as undermining the decision-making mechanism under the Antarctic Treaty. Such tests of the Treaty’s strength are worrying in Canberra, where there are enough alarmed publications on this topic.
Australia has other grievances: back in 2013, China proposed creating a new special area around its Kunlun station, which is in the Australian sector. The Chinese side believes that this area is 20 thousand square meters. km requires “better protection” due to the fact that there are “significant scientific, environmental and logistical values”.
Beijing also proposes to coordinate activities in the new area. The plan envisages the division of the territory into several zones, and in the largest – the Zone of Clean Air – a ban will be introduced on transit, flights on airplanes and the construction of permanent structures. Informal discussions of this initiative in 2013-2017 led nowhere. But if Beijing manages to get approval for the plan, even in a truncated form, this will confirm its increased influence under the Antarctic Treaty.
The United States is also looking with concern at the growth of Chinese activity in the region . If 10 years ago China lagged significantly behind the Americans both in financing the Antarctic program and in the number of personnel at research stations, now it has almost caught up in most parameters. In addition, work on the modernization of American infrastructure has been suspended due to the pandemic.
It is also widely believed in the United States that the current situation in Antarctica resembles the Arctic, but ten years ago. US Air Force Chief of Staff Charles Quinton Brown, Jr. said that rivalry in the region “in just a few years” will resemble the long-term US Arctic confrontation with China and Russia.
The US and its allies are likely to continue to push proposals for new marine protected areas. The Joint Ministerial Declaration , adopted on April 28 following a meeting on protected areas in Antarctica, states that the parties (including the United States, the United Kingdom and several EU countries) reaffirm their commitment to the creation of a system of marine protected areas and are ready to join forces to reach a consensus.
Nevertheless, it cannot be said that there are no points of contact between the world powers in Antarctica. In promoting the creation of protected areas in the Ross Sea, the United States has actively sought to enlist the support of China and Russia . The then Secretary of State John Kerry, who has now taken over as the US President’s Special Envoy for Climate, took part in the Antarctic negotiations. So Antarctica may still become one of the rare areas of cooperation in the current conflicting relations of powers.
