Robert Clark
The war in Ukraine has been shocking and distressing to a collective Western audience which has not seen industrialised warfare in at least three generations. It has seen grinding, murderous brutality in which men have gone into combat, taken heavy losses, and then the survivors – after a short break, if they are lucky – have been thrown into combat again and again until soldiers come to believe that death is certain.
It is very hard to maintain any spirit of aggressive attack among such soldiers, especially if they are unwilling conscripts who have no interest in the war. The latest British intelligence update says that Russia is now reliant on specially set up “Shtorm-Z” units, made up of convicts and regular soldiers assigned as a punishment, to conduct offensive operations: that is, to make attacks. The British analysts go on to add that Russia has “extreme difficulty in generating combat infantry capable of effective offensive operations”.
In effect, ordinary Russian troops’ hearts have been broken: the only Russian soldiers who can be forced to get out of their trenches and attack are those of the “Shtorm-Z” units. These units may once have been meant to be elite, but they are now effectively penal battalions in which every man has been sentenced to death. Similar situations have developed in previous wars. The famous maverick US colonel David Hackworth, fighting in a grinding trench war in Korea, formed an elite unit called the Raiders from the troops of his infantry regiment. The Raiders did almost all the regiment’s aggressive fighting: but they actually were treated as an elite. Raiders were given special weapons, better rations and pulled back out of the line to more comfortable quarters between operations. Later in Vietnam, Hackworth used similar ideas: but he also sought to “steel his soldiers’ hearts”, to harden them so that they could stay aggressive and willing to fight even after the strain of prolonged combat.
It’s a very difficult thing to do: but the evidence suggests that Ukrainian soldiers today have steely hearts indeed. They have continued to attack relentlessly all through the summer. It is clear that Russia is feeling the pressure to the south of Zaporizhzhia, as the Ukrainians push for the Azov Sea and aim to cut Russia’s land-bridge in two. This has led the Russians to attempt an ill-advised offensive of their own around Avdiivka, in an attempt to draw off strength from the Ukrainian attack. But the Ukrainian 110th Mechanized Brigade, leading the defence of Avdiivka, are performing heroically. The Russians continue to pour more men and more equipment into another failed meat-grinder, reminiscent of the disastrous Russian campaign to capture Bakhmut at all costs. Russia’s 2nd Combined Arms Army appears likely to have lost a brigade’s worth of troops as local sources describe seeing hundreds of Russian corpses on the hills around the town. Russian units are pinned by heavy Ukrainian fire, unable to advance or retreat. In light of this failed advance, Russia appears to be mobilising additional reserves from the 106th Airborne Division to relieve pressure at Avdiivka.
It is also reconstituting fresh “Shtorm-Z” assault units from divisions across 1st Corps. These are reportedly given very low priority for medical treatment and resupply, perhaps because they are not expected to survive long enough to need them. Avdiivka represents a strategic and political failure by Russia, too, not just a tactical and operational one. One of the main aims for this latest offensive is to relieve pressure further south. Yet the Ukrainians are holding out well as Russian losses become unsustainable. It now seems likely that there will be a limited withdrawal at Avdiivka, as Russia won’t be able to supply a relief-in-place.
This offensive was the brainchild of General Gerasimov, the head of Russia’s General Staff and a staunch Putin ally. Answering to defence minister Sergei Shoigu – another Putin yes-man – Gerasimov was personally tasked to halt the Ukrainian summer offensive by October. His plan has failed, costing huge numbers of Russian lives. Gerasimov should have prioritised reconstituting Zaporizhzhia’s defences, as the Russian military has lost its ability to attack. This decision by Gerasimov is indicative of his preference for offensives. This is one reason Putin keeps him in place as his predecessor – the far more capable Surovikin, replaced after the failed Wagner putsch on Moscow – favoured defensive action when the situation demanded it.
With the Russian mechanized infantry divisions on the ropes, the weather turning unfavourable for assaults, and infantry units manned by poorly led conscripts and convicts, Russia can ill afford continued bungling. But bungling there shall be, as Gerasimov and Shoigu have no one to challenge their disastrous handling of the Russian campaigns: only a blood-thirsty tyrant to appease, who is determined to see more ill-conceived Russian assaults doomed to failure against the steely determination of the Ukrainians. Nevertheless, 2024 is going to bring some tough decisions for Kyiv as the US becomes increasingly distracted.
Already we have seen US munitions bound for Ukraine diverted for Israel, and as a fractious House split along party lines argues for more military spending for Tel Aviv, Kyiv will have to find more support from capitals closer to home. That will be a vital diplomatic mission, and a difficult one for Ukrainians who are arguably fighting Europeans’ battles for them and receiving very little help in doing so. However, even as these financial and political realities begin to bite, Ukraine can take solace from the fact that Russia’s combat attrition is close to, if not more than, 100 per cent of its combat manpower from 2021/22. The tough “kontraktniki” professional soldiers of the pre-invasion Russian army have been wiped out, and Ukrainians now face armies of unwilling conscripts and the dregs of the Russian prison system. Ukraine has been bloodied too, but every soldier in its army knows that he fighting to preserve his own home, his own family and ultimately himself from the horrors of Russian occupation: the task of steeling his heart is comparatively easy to perform.
It is this indominable Ukrainian fighting spirit which matters. It saved the nation of Ukraine right at the start of Putin’s invasion and it is still doing so today. It doesn’t matter which foreign nations the money and munitions come from, so long as they come. In time when students look back and study the nature of war, they will remember Napoleon’s dictum that in war, “the moral is to the physical as three to one”. They will probably cite Ukraine as one of the greatest ever examples of its truth.
The Telegraph
