The tragic death in a helicopter crash of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian in the mountainous terrain in the province of Eastern Azerbaijan on Sunday comes at a time when Iran and the West Asian region are going through a crisis because of the war in Gaza, and the exchange of missile and drone attacks between Iran and Israel last month for the first time since the creation of Israel in 1948 which had made the security situation both fragile and volatile.
Raisi won the presidential election in 2021 and he was seen as strong, especially in the protests that broke out over Kurdish girl Mahsa Amini for violating the dress code, in late 2022 and early 2023. He was also expected to succeed the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei because of his adherence to conservatism. The helicopter carrying Raisi and Abdollahian was a 50-year-old vehicle. It is being inferred that because of the American economic sanctions, Iran has not been able to buy modern planes and equipment in general.
Iran’s Supreme leader Ali Khamenei expressed his sorrow in a statement, in which he said, “With immense grief and sorrow, I received the bitter news of the passing of the diligent scholar, the competent and hard-working popular president, the servant of Imam Reza, Sayyid Ebrahim Raisi, and his esteemed companions. The entire tenure of Ebrahim Raisi, whether during his short presidency or before that, was spent in tireless service to the people of the country and Islam.” Raisi rose from the ranks. He became a deputy head of the judiciary for 10 years, and was appointed prosecutor-general in 2014. In 2019, the United States sanctioned him for human rights violations, including his role in the death of political dissidents in the 1980s. He lost the presidential election to Hasan Rouhani in 2017. Rouhani was seen as a pragmatist. Raisi was appointed chief of the head of the judiciary in 2019 by Khamenei. And soon he was made deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts, the 88-member clerical body that will elect the Supreme Leader.
According to the Iranian Constitution of 1979 – important amendments were made to the Constitution in 1989 – the first vice president will be the caretaker president in the case of the death of a president in office. Mohammad Mokhber, the first vice president, will be care-taker president, and the election for a new president will be held in 50 days. The cabinet has made deputy foreign minister Ali Bagheri Kani as the caretaker foreign minister in the place of Abdollahian. The complicated Iranian constitutional structure provides for exigencies. This is the reason that Ali Khamenei said that there would be no disruption in government when news came in about the helicopter crash carrying Raisi, Abollahian and others.
The nuclear negotiations between Iran and the US, along with Germany, France and UK, is hanging fire. And with the presidential election in the US due in November, the prospect of reviving the 2015 deal seems to be difficult. Then US President Barack Obama had pushed for it, but his successor Donald Trump dropped it without hesitation. The possibility of reworking the agreement which involves Iran reducing the up-gradation of the fissile material to weapons grade in return for lifting of West’s economic sanctions against Iran would become difficult if Trump were to win in November. And there is little doubt that Iran’s economic growth is suffering because of the sanctions.
