Valery Mikhailov
Last week, China and Ukraine celebrated the tenth anniversary of the signing of the Joint Declaration on the Establishment and Development of Strategic Partnership Relations be-tween the two countries. More precisely, China n-oted, which organized se-veral events on this occasion, at which, however, high Ukrainian officials did not dare to register.
And the point is not that on the part of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych signed the Joint Declaration , who was officially stripped of his presidency in Kiev in 2015. Rather, it is about whether, in principle, the current Ukraine, which is under the external control of the West, can have a strategic partnership with China, which is declared the main adversary in the West. Including against the backdrop of a scandal with an attempt by Chinese investors to gain control over Motor Sich , which ended in the extrajudicial expropriation of an asset purchased by the Chinese and investors filed lawsuits in international arbitration .
Nevertheless, China today is Ukraine’s main trading partner. Trade with it is developing at a much faster pace than with the European Union or any of its members. At the same time, both for China and for the European Union, Ukraine is a raw material appendage. In this regard, of course, the question arises: did Ukraine really need to ruin its industry and, to a significant extent, statehood for the sake of signing an association agreement with the EU, if after that it develops trade most successfully with China, and practically lost its status as an exporter of technological products?
The trade turnover between Ukraine and China in the first five months of this year increased in comparison with the same period last year, according to the Ukrainian customs, by 35 percent and by 48 percent – according to the Chinese Embassy in Ukraine. The gap from the second largest foreign trade partner, Poland, is already almost twofold. Moreover, both in terms of trade and, which is more important for Ukraine, in terms of exports. One would think that the jump is related to the low base of the pandemic 2020, but this is not so: 2020 became a record year in terms of trade between Ukraine and China in history, the trade turnover exceeded $ 15.4 billion.
Moreover, the growth in trade between the countries in recent years is based on the accelerated growth in the export of goods from Ukraine to China. In 2020 alone, Ukrainian exports to China almost doubled compared to the previous year: from $ 3.6 billion to $ 7.1 billion. And compared with the last pre-Maidan year, exports increased 2.6 times.
Over the same period, Ukrainian exports to the EU grew by 11 percent (from $ 16.8 to $ 18.7 billion). But the signing of an agreement on a free trade zone with the EU within the framework of the association agreement was once served to Ukrainians under the sauce of free access of their goods to the largest world market. Formally, it was for this broad gesture on the part of the EU (which is actually very limited by non-tariff regulation measures) that Ukraine even officially agreed to a partial renunciation of sovereignty in matters of technical regulation, tax, customs policy, and so on, and unofficially, it passed under external control. to a much greater extent. Plus agreed to lose the market of its main trading partner at that time – Russia. From 2013 to 2020, Ukrainian exports to Russia decreased by 5.6 times, or 12,
But, as the practice of Chinese-Ukrainian trade relations shows, it is absolutely not necessary to increase trade in general and exports in particular by concluding enslaving agreements, destroying our industry and statehood.
Another question, of course, is the structure of exports. In Russia, Ukraine has lost a market for its engineering products, for finished food products and similar goods. About 93 percent of China’s exports are iron ore, grains, sunflower oil and food waste as animal feed. In the European Union, the main export goods are the same, plus ferrous metals and products from them, wood and products from it, wiring for cars (it is not made in Ukraine, but manually twisted according to the scheme – due to the cheapness of labor). Together, these products account for three quarters of exports to the EU.
It is also interesting in this situation that China has not yet reacted in any way to the absolutely boorish fact of state raiding by Ukraine towards Chinese investors who bought out a controlling stake in Motor Sich. The Ambassador of China to Ukraine Fan Xianrong recently even said: “Many in the world and, of course, in China, are watching the fate of the project (Motor Sich. – Ed.), Whether the issue will be resolved fairly and rationally. … Any decisions have consequences – I am sure that the Ukrainian side understands this. We have appropriate contacts. The Ukrainian side assures us that it will protect the legitimate interests of Chinese investors. “
There are doubts that China seriously believes in the possibility of Ukraine meeting the demands of defrauded investors, which exceed $ 3.6 billion. Rather, it is an invitation to dialogue and an indication of the inadmissibility of such actions in the future. Fan Xianrong also hinted at a possible sphere of Chinese interests if the Ukrainian side is ready to seek a compromise. In particular, he said that in the near future Ukraine and China will sign a document on a new form of China’s participation in infrastructure projects in Ukraine .
But the “kidok” with “Motor Sich” is far from the only problem in the Ukrainian-Chinese relations. No later than next year, Ukraine is predicted to default on the debt of the State Food and Grain Corporation, for which in 2012 Ukraine issued a loan from the Chinese Eximbank in the amount of $ 1.5 billion for 15 years for the supply of grain. The corporation is in a pre-bankruptcy state due to almost complete plundering – the fighters against corruption, brought to power by the West, did not even think to fight it, but they headed it and reached new heights.
Perhaps even more important is the problem of Ukraine’s external governance. The expropriation of Motor Sich was carried out on command from across the ocean, in the interests of Washington and without any consideration of the consequences for Ukraine itself. Of course, in the context of aggravated contradictions between the United States and China, Kiev at any time may receive any other suicidal order in terms of causing damage to China. And it is unlikely that Kiev will disobey him.
But China is not a bastard either. It seems that by increasing purchases of Ukrainian raw materials, the Chinese comrades are letting the claw of the Ukrainian bird on the Chinese market get bogged down more and more: almost 15 percent of all Ukrainian exports go to China. China will definitely not be in a hurry with sanctions against Ukraine and do it to its own detriment. But a moment may come when China, in response to unfriendly steps, can, say, apply an embargo on the supply of Ukrainian products, which will be a powerful blow to the frail Ukrainian economy. Australia, with a much more powerful economy , will not let you lie: it can be very painful.
