Andrew Hammond
The late Roy Jenkins, a former president of the European Commission and UK Cabinet minister, famously coined the phrase “tail-end Charlies” to describe beleaguered prime ministers who come into office toward the end of a long period of rule by their parties.
The members of this tail-ender prime ministerial club often represent the bookend to one political era before the start of a new one. Notable members of the club include: Alec Douglas-Home, the Conservative premier from 1963 to 1964 who gave way to Labour PM Harold Wilson; Jim Callaghan, the Labour premier between 1976 and 1979 who was followed into office by Conservative leader Margaret Thatcher; and John Major, the Conservative PM from 1990 to 1997 who was replaced in 10 Downing Street by New Labour’s Tony Blair.
Douglas-Home’s defeat in 1964 marked the end, following a series of scandals, of 13 years of Conservative rule. The Tories enjoyed 18 years in power before losing to Labour in 1997 in the aftermath of the 1992 Black Wednesday financial crisis. And before Thatcher’s victory in 1979, Labour had been in power for much of the previous 15 until Callaghan lost power in the wake of major economic challenges.
In the eyes of many modern Conservatives, these historical examples of long-time ruling parties losing power are too close for comfort to the situation their party currently finds itself in, given that it has been in government since regaining power, under the leadership of David Cameron, from Labour in 2010.
That victory now seems to many to be a political eternity ago, as the party has gone through a further four prime ministers in the 13 years since then: Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, and Rishi Sunak.
Despite the wide diversity of tail-end premiers in terms of backgrounds, beliefs and leadership styles, a common pattern is that, whatever their various talents, they ultimately proved unable to halt the flow of the political tide against them. After many years in office, the growing momentum toward the opposition party eventually proved insurmountable.
This political dynamic appears to be playing out once again in the UK, and the Conservative Party Conference last week was only the latest sign of this. The event, in Manchester, was widely viewed as a significant setback for the party in general, and Sunak in particular, with the vexed issue of the future of the extremely costly High Speed 2 railway line dominating the debate in recent days. The prime minister announced on Wednesday that he was canceling a key section of the project in northern England.
Sunak’s week was troubled in other respects. Former PM Truss, for example, advocated tax cuts during the conference, with the fact that arch-Brexiteer Nigel Farage was also in attendance at her rally stirring up additional controversy.
About 60 Conservative MPs have joined Truss’ Growth Group, a caucus in the House of Commons, that could potentially imperil the government’s majority in the chamber if she tries to lead a rebellion against him, perhaps over elements of the Autumn Statement on the economy that is due in November.
With the government currently under siege, therefore, it appears the prime minister might well delay the next general election for as long as possible.
On Tuesday, he said a national ballot is “not what the country wants” right now, suggesting that the election might not take place until the second half of next year, or possibly even early 2025. The deadline by which it must be held is Jan. 28, 2025.With this huge political decision pending, Sunak might be getting conflicting advice. Some people could be telling him his interests will be best served by waiting until the last possible moment to hold the ballot. Others might advise calling the election earlier on the grounds that the economic and political context might be even worse, not better, in late 2024.In general, tail-end prime ministers tend to postpone elections for as long as possible in the hope that something will eventually turn up to improve their chances of winning. Douglas-Home and Major called ballots very close to the last possible legal date available to them, in 1964 and 1997 respectively. Similarly, Callaghan stalled until he lost a vote of confidence in the Commons.
While nothing is set in stone as yet, there are nevertheless striking parallels to be drawn between the Sunak administration and others that ultimately allowed the opposition to seize power. As last week’s party conference in Manchester showed, the Conservatives remain hugely divided, intellectually exhausted after so long in power without renewal, and beset by scandals.
So while the Labour Party, which won an important by-election in Scotland on Thursday to boost its spirits, can take nothing for granted, it will be a huge ask for Sunak to persuade UK voters to give the Conservatives an unprecedented fifth-straight term in 2024 or 2025, which would potentially give the party an incredible two decades in power. This is especially true given the current cost-of-living crisis in the UK as a result of high inflation and elevated interest rates, and with tax as a proportion of gross domestic product at around its highest level since the mid-20th century.
In this context, it is little wonder the party conference sometimes felt like a “warm-up act” for a coming, post-election Conservative leadership contest. For instance, Home Secretary Suella Braverman delivered a controversial speech about immigration on Tuesday in which she warned of “a hurricane of migrants.” It was aimed squarely at right-wing party activists rather than the nation as a whole, with a view toward boosting her chances in the next Conservative leadership race.
Taking all of this together, Sunak therefore does appear destined to join the “tail-ender Charlies” club, as winning an unprecedented fifth-straight term is a goal that appears too difficult for him and his party to achieve.
After almost a decade and a half of Conservative rule, and no fewer than five prime ministers to boot, his premiership would therefore serve as a bookend ahead of the new political era that appears to be on the horizon.
