Elena Chernenko
The US, UK and Australia have formed a new security alliance – AUKUS. Its stated goal is to ensure security in the Indo-Pacific region. In practice, it is about containing China. In the first project, partners will help Australia build a nuclear-powered submarine fleet. For this, the Australians tore up the multibillion-dollar defense contract previously concluded with France. In Paris, the actions of the allies were called “stab in the back.” Beijing, on the other hand, warned of the danger of a return to the “outdated mentality of the Cold War era.”
Triple Alliance
The name of the new alliance is formed from the abbreviations of its members: AU – Australia, UK – Great Britain, US – USA. The leaders of these three states – Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and US President Joe Biden – announced the creation of a partnership on Thursday night Moscow time. Their joint statement said that the alliance’s activities are aimed at ensuring peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region. Among other things, the three countries will continue to actively exchange military technologies:
AUKUS will promote deeper integration of science, technology, industrial bases and supply chains related to security and defense. “
Separately, it is reported about plans for the supply of American missiles to Australia, including cruise Tomahawk, as well as weapons still in development.
The AUKUS leaders stressed that their bloc is not directed against third countries, but by all indications, the main task of the union will be to contain China. Among other things, the heads of state mentioned the need to maintain a “rule-based order”: they have previously used the term repeatedly to defend freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, which Beijing considers its zone of exclusive influence.
The first AUKUS project will be the assistance of the United States and Great Britain in the appearance of Australia’s own nuclear submarine fleet. To this end, Australia took an unprecedented step, breaking the largest defense contract in its history – with France.
The Royal Australian Navy currently has six Collins-class boats built between 1990 and 2003 according to an adapted Swedish design. The boats have a designated lifespan of 30 years, and in the 2000s, Australia began exploring options for replacing submarines. In 2009, the Australian government’s Defense White Paper Defending Australia in the Asia Pacific Century: Force 2030 announced a plan to expand its submarine fleet to 12 submarines to increase Australian capabilities in the Asia-Pacific region. “At the same time, the key requirements for the new boats were formulated: these were to be non-nuclear submarines armed, in addition to torpedoes and anti-ship missiles, also with long-range cruise missiles,
The Australians considered various options for replacing their boats, but in 2016 they settled on the French proposal – a non-nuclear version of the new Barracuda submarine from the Thales / DCNS consortium. “Nevertheless, the French project was severely criticized, its cost was considered unacceptable already at the start – $ 28 billion, then it increased even more – to $ 48.3 billion and eventually to more than $ 60 billion with a lead submarine delivery date in 2030 and completion of construction of the series by 2040. Back in 2020, the Australian press, citing sources, expressed doubts about the project’s feasibility, ”recalls Ilya Kramnik.
Nevertheless, in Paris, apparently, they did not expect Canberra to abandon this contract. Back in June, when hosting Scott Morrison, French President Emmanuel Macron spoke with anticipation of the coming “decades of cooperation.” Moreover, according to French media reports, two weeks ago the Australian Defense and Foreign Ministers, in contacts with their visas from France, assured that the contract remains in effect.
The final decision of Australia, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian on Thursday called “a stab in the back.”
“I’m angry. I feel a great sense of bitterness in connection with the termination of this contract. The allies do not do that, ”he said. Paris is exploring the possibility of receiving compensation from Canberra for the breakdown of a multibillion-dollar contract.
The United States and Great Britain promise to share with Australia technologies for building nuclear submarines, which will be partially built at the Adelaide shipyards. The Australian authorities are ready to invest about $ 66 billion in the project in order to receive the first submarines in 2036. In total, they plan to build eight nuclear submarines. “The choice will have to be between the British type Astute and the American Virginia. The most probable choice of the American project, – Ilya Kramnik believes. – The key task of these boats will be the fight against the growing nuclear submarine fleet of China.
“Outdated mentality of the Cold War era”
AUKUS plans were sharply criticized in Beijing. According to Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian, Australia’s acquisition of nuclear submarine construction technologies “harms the international nuclear non-proliferation regime and aggravates the arms race.” The diplomat called on the members of the new alliance “to abandon their outdated mentality of the Cold War era and narrow-minded geopolitical concepts,” warning that “otherwise they will only harm their own interests.”
RIAC expert Alexander Ermakov, in an interview with Kommersant, notes: AUKUS is “not only an important geopolitical formation of the core of the anti-Chinese bloc and the consolidation of Australia in the position of the most important ally of the United States along with Great Britain.” “This is a deal, unique for military-technical cooperation, for the sale of an entire fleet of nuclear submarines at once. In scale, this is reminiscent of the historic Nassau Pact, when in 1962 the US administration of John F. Kennedy pledged to help Britain build missile submarines and sell ballistic missiles to them, ”he explains.
According to the expert, there is almost no practice of selling nuclear submarines, especially on such a scale. “Russia leased India’s boats to train personnel and helps with the construction of its own types, but there was no question of purchasing a whole series. In Brazil, with French help, a program for the construction of a nuclear submarine is underway, but this, like everything related to the Brazilian navy, is rather an illustration of corruption and horrendous long-term construction, ”explains Mr. Ermakov.
If the plans of AUKUS are successfully implemented, then, according to the forecast of the interlocutor of Kommersant, “undoubtedly, it will stimulate the development of the nuclear submarine fleet in the region, which is“ heating up ”all the time.”
South Korea and Japan are likely to be next in line. “From a certain point of view, this also undermines the nuclear nonproliferation regime, since although submarines themselves do not fall under the NPT, American and British reactors will require supplies of highly enriched uranium,” notes Alexander Ermakov. And he adds: “New Zealand, historically one of the main supporters of nuclear-free zones, has already announced that it will not allow the submarines of its main ally into its waters and ports.”
The Russian authorities reacted with restraint to the emergence of the new structure. Press Secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov said that “first we need to understand the details of this alliance.” And the representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova stressed: Moscow expects that Australia will continue to comply with its obligations as a non-nuclear country.
According to Ilya Kramnik, the situation requires Russia to carefully consider the balance of power in the Pacific Ocean, where it is now playing a role that is clearly inappropriate for its tasks.
“The Pacific Fleet is inferior in its capabilities, apart from the strategic nuclear forces, not only to the US Navy and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, but also to the Maritime Self-Defense Forces of Japan and the South Korean Navy. If Australia is implementing a project to build eight multipurpose nuclear submarines, it will also bypass the Russian fleet in the region in terms of its general purpose capabilities, ”the expert says. According to him, this does not carry direct military risks “here and now,” but seriously narrows Russia’s ability to defend its position and win the support of potential partners and allies. “From this point of view, the potential build-up of the capabilities of the Australian fleet should be assessed by us from the point of view of how our fleet is adequate to the tasks facing it. So far, unfortunately, he is inadequate for them either in terms of the current composition.
