Iqbal Khan
On March 27, Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, announced that the country had successfully launched an anti-satellite missile in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). With that, India became the fourth country to test an Anti-Satellite (ASAT) weapon, used to attack enemy satellites or intercepting ballistic missiles. The target of the ASAT was the Indian satellite MICROSAT-R, which was at an altitude of about 186 miles. Other countries that have this know-how are the US, China, and Russia. Modi said this test – dubbed Mission Shakti – wasn’t directed at anybody, and didn’t violate any international laws.
While Russia and China have a predictable leadership that adheres to universally accepted norms of statesmanship, the US and India are passing through a worst leadership crisis of contemporary political order. Narendra Modi and Donald Trump are demagogues, overwhelmed by mob mentality. Both share pathological dislike for China and Pakistan. Modi-Trump duo holds key to triggering of a strategic crisis for political exigencies— like winning the second term. Therefore India’s access to satellite killing capability is not a good omen for stability in South Asia.
The head of NASA, Jim Bridenstine, has aptly branded India’s destruction of one of its satellites a “terrible thing” that had created 400 pieces of orbital debris and led to new dangers for astronauts aboard the International Space Station (ISS). Not all of the pieces were big enough to track, Bridenstine explained. “What we are tracking right now, objects big enough to track — we’re talking about 10 centimetres or bigger — about 60 pieces have been tracked”, he added.
India’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement that the test was conducted in “the lower atmosphere to ensure that there is no space debris,” and “whatever debris that is generated will decay and fall back onto the Earth within weeks.”
Space companies and agencies around the world were not pleased with India‘s test. Indian Space Research Organisation‘s (ISRO) long-term partner, Planet Labs, condemned the test and advised that the space environment should be used purely for peaceful purposes.
Brian Weeden, Director of Programme Planning at the Secure World Foundation, asked on Twitter if any companies are considering boycotting India’s Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV) to send a message to the nation. He was suggesting to these companies to think about the role they want to play in fostering responsible behaviour in space. More tests like this risk creating space debris that could impact commercial business models for space, plus many of these companies feel strongly about social responsibility.
The Indian satellite was destroyed at a relatively low altitude of 300 kilometres; about 24 of the pieces “are going above the apogee of the International Space Station,” said Bridenstine. “That is a terrible, terrible thing to create an event that sends debris at an apogee that goes above the International Space Station,” he continued, adding: “That kind of activity is not compatible with the future of human spaceflight.” “It’s unacceptable and NASA needs to be very clear about what its impact to us is.”
The US military tracks objects in space to predict the collision risk for the ISS and for satellites. They are currently tracking 23,000 objects larger than 10 centimeters.
That includes about 10,000 pieces of space debris, of which nearly 3,000 were created by a single event: a Chinese anti-satellite test in 2007 at 530 miles from the surface. As a result of the Indian test, the risk of collision with the ISS has increased by 44 per cent over 10 days, Bridenstine said. But the risk will dissipate over time as much of the debris will burn up as it enters the atmosphere. US Defence Secretary Patrick Shanahan indirectly disapproved of the mission, saying, “We all live in space. Let’s not make it a mess.” Daniel Porras, the space security fellow at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research, also expressed a similar opinion.
Pakistan has expressed deep concern over conduct of Anti-Satellite weapon (ASAT) test by India. Pakistan has noted with deep concern the assessment of relevant organizations and international experts on the threats resulting from space debris generated by the ASAT test by India. A press release by the foreign office has expressed deep concern that some of the space debris created by this test had been pushed above the apogee of the ISS, adding that enhanced risk of collision was deeply worrying.
Pakistan has been a strong proponent of Prevention of Arms Race in Outer Space (PAROS). Space is the common heritage of mankind and every nation has the responsibility to avoid actions which can lead to the militarization of this arena. There is a need to address gaps in the international space laws with a view to ensuring that no one threatens peaceful activities and applications of space technologies for socio-economic development.
India got emboldened after getting the membership of Missile Technology Control Regime, on June 27, 2016. It has, since then, tested Multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV) capable Intercontinental Ballistic Missile ICBM) Agni V. India is taking the advantage of America’s pseudo security concern about rise of China and its plan to use India in a contain China strategy. With the latest capability. India’s space programme poses a serious threat to Pakistan’s modest space programme, mainly comprising its communication satellites.
Pakistan should continue to be part of comity of nations’ effort to put in place effective space safety measure. However, without waiting for the evolution of a universally accepted, legally binding and verifiable multilateral treaty under the auspices of the UN, prohibiting stationing of weapons in outer space, Pakistan should take appropriate measure to equalise India’s strategic advantage arising out of its test of anti-satellite capability.
Iqbal.khan9999@yahoo.com
