Dmitry Kosyrev
The results of local elections on the beautiful island of Taiwan are very easy to perceive as follows: bad news for the American instigators of a great war in Asia, they have lost Zelensky there – in a female form, that is, in the form of Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen. The people of the island voted for a united China, defeating the ruling Democratic Party.
But in fact, this is true – and not quite so: not only more difficult, but also more interesting, and also, perhaps, even worse for the United States. If only because we are not facing a one-time event, but the continuation of a complex process throughout East Asia, so that the American instigators of the “Ukrainization” of Taiwan have many good opportunities to hinder this process and therefore make many more mistakes.
So, there were elections throughout the country, but not presidential elections (these are scheduled for 2024) and not to parliament, but only to local authorities. And they suffered a complete failure of the Democratic Progressive Party, led by the same lady – Tsai Ing-wen. Tsai has since ritually resigned as head of the party, but remains in the presidency. So she will still have a chance to arrange another Nancy Pelosi from Washington to visit the island and / or provoke Beijing with talk of Taiwan independence, an imminent Chinese landing there, or a severing of all ties.
In general, the clowning of the next American Zelensky in a female guise is not necessarily over. By the way, the role of such a clown in world politics is known – today it is very instructive to re-read the history of a no longer existing state named South Vietnam. The first of the local Zelenskys was simply killed by the Americans (in 1963 as a result of a conspiracy by the CIA and the local military), but his political heirs later tormented the United States with malicious demands for years: more money, more weapons, more soldiers and bombings, “you betray us”… Bottom line – demoralization of the South Vietnamese population and the victory of the North over the South in 1975.
But if we return to the elections in Taiwan, the result is as follows: 11,000 purely local officials were elected in 21 regions. Of these regions, the Democrats were able to take only five, and 13 went to the good old party – the Kuomintang. Once the Kuomintang was a monopoly in power on the island, but 34 years ago the Democratic Party (classical, pro-Western in every sense) was constructed, after which the Kuomintang began to lose elections and gradually fell into decline. Now it seems that the emergence of the DPP was intended as such – to eliminate the Kuomintang, provoke Beijing, create regional conflicts, and plant all conceivable Western values and norms on the island. Although this is, of course, an exaggeration.
How do Asian analysts respond to this event? Here is at least the author of the Hong Kong South China Morning Post, who notes : in general, local elections always focus on local topics, but Tsai herself said that she perceives them as a referendum to her presidency, given that “she is the only thing worth between Beijing’s invasion and Taiwanese freedom and democracy”. A referendum is a referendum, and it turns out that voters do not take seriously the cries about the “Chinese threat” regularly issued by the DPP.
What do they take seriously? Here we see an amazing unanimity of experts: Tsai and DPP paidfor the lockdowns and other restrictive measures associated with the coronavirus that have killed everyone. All these measures are the corporate style of Democrats all over the world: in particular, in the United States, in “democratic” states, people were driven into self-isolation and wearing masks, while this was not the case in “Republican” states. The result is a medical, social and economic catastrophe precisely in the territories of the Democrats, which is now repeated in Taiwan. Where, by the way, the former Minister of Health, who is largely responsible for this catastrophe, failed in the elections. And the fact that at the same time the Taiwanese regime pleased the United States in terms of provoking tension with China and curtailing economic ties with it only made the situation worse, because causing two misfortunes at the same time is strong.
Now the second important lesson of these elections is that they give a chance for the return to life of a sane political force, that is, the Kuomintang (“National Party”). This is not exactly a local event – it is part of a global trend.
At some point, it seemed that the experiment to introduce “human values” into Taiwanese society would change it beyond recognition, that is, let’s say, “Ukrainize” it. And, accordingly, the party that has ruled the island since 1949 (the end date of the civil war in China) is the past, because it is savagery to say that China is united and will be reunited in some future. Several generations of people have grown up on the island, for whom Taiwan is, in fact, a separate country.
But the fact of the matter is that it was the Kuomintang that created an economic miracle on this island, and since the 1980s, a key part of this miracle has been built on integration with China in everything except political structures. “Visa-free travel”, a lot of joint ventures, the Chinese market as a key factor in the prosperity of the islanders… If we return to the Ukrainian experience again, the reasonableness of integration is the idea that moved people who were confident: logic and reason will lead to the fact that Russia and Ukraine have everything sooner or later it will be good. The Taiwanese democrats have dealt a blow to this construction, inflating hatred towards China up to talk of war.
But by doing this, we repeat, they gave a chance for the revival of the Kuomintang after a long decline. And what a revival. The party has a 43-year-old leader named Jiang Wan, who has now become the mayor of the capital – Taipei, defeating, by the way, the same ex-minister of health. And Jiang is the great-great-grandson of Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek, one of the founders of the Kuomintang, the first ruler of Taiwan after 1949 and, by the way, our ally in the anti-fascist coalition. (The real name of Chiang Kai-shek is Jiang Zeshi: this is a severe case of mistranslation into European languages from the southern Chinese dialect.) By the way, the grandson of the generalissimo also ruled the island – and very successfully.
Current experts do not at all believe that this leader (if he already leads the entire country) will pursue a “pro-Chinese” policy. Rather, it will restore normality—respectful relations with the West (without “greening” Taiwan) and a revival of integration with the Chinese economy. The fact is that today many new leaders of Asia (and not only Asia) are busy with this – at least the son and heir of Ferdinand Marcos in the Philippines, also President Ferdinand Marcos. He has already met with the leadership of both China and the United States – in both cases he spoke about expanding ties. Balance and rationality in international relations is the essence of the politics of many today.
