Daria Fedotova
The new year will not bring anything good to Ukraine, and the military conflict will drag on and develop into a new phase, which may be followed by a number of interesting events. So says Russian political scientist Alexei Mukhin. The expert also predicted the possible joining of Belarus and NATO countries to the conflict in Ukraine and told how the emergence of new participants in the confrontation could end in the international arena.
Alexey Alekseevich, perhaps there is no person who would not ask the question: will the SVO end in 2023. Should we expect a fracture?
Turning points in the NWO will occur in the near future – this is February-March 2023. This is already clear to everyone, and many military experts from different countries adhere to this point of view.
Will the military conflict be over? Definitely – no. It will stretch for a long time. Because after the SVO, na-mely the protection of the Russian population in the territory of Donbass, Kher-son and Zaporozhye regio-ns, there will be a second phase – this is the denazification of Ukraine and bri-nging it to a politically neutral state. Perhaps with the entry into the Union State – who knows? Such options are also being considered by the Russian leadership, as I understand it.
Some NATO member countries during this year, as they say, showed their teeth. Will they move to more active actions in the new year and will they be involved in this conflict?
NATO is already up to its neck in this conflict, so we are only talking about the fact that this involvement will be recognized officially. Most likely, this will happen in 2023. Although, if the Ukrainian side, as they say, breaks down much earlier, NATO will try to distance itself from this conflict, because NATO countries, especially the United States and Great Britain, as they say, are out of their hands to be in the camp of the defeated. And in this regard, they will do everything to shift all the blame on the mediocre Ukrainian leadership.
I think that Zelensky understands this in principle, which is why he was so sad during his trip to Washington. What makes the situation worse for the United States is that they are very distracted by the confrontation with China.
By the way, how can the confrontation between the US and China affect the Ukrainian crisis?
Taiwan is one of their e-pisodes, one of the fragments of a large geopolitical mosaic. The confrontation with China will take p-lace primarily in economic terms. Despite the almost c-omplete trade and economic affiliation of the United States and China, nevertheless, there will be confron-tation between the countries. It’s already coming.
Unfortunately for the American side, back in 2017, China formulated its own concept of geopolitical development. And it is just built on a direct confrontation with the United States. No wonder Donald Trump has declared a trade war on China. Because before that, China outlined its serious ambitions, which the United States considered unacceptable. China will contain the US. And in this regard, I have bad news for Ukraine, because significant resources of the United States, Britain and other NATO member countries are switched to Ukraine, and it turns out that the United States is wasting time while China is building up its potential, including military, for the upcoming confrontation.
At the end of the year there were a lot of questions about Belarus – will it participate in a special military operation?
Belarus is already at the ready. The Belarusian case is completely dependent on the situation in western Ukraine. Back in 2020, Poland actually began mobilization, creating the so-called occupying army. That is, Poland is unlikely to fight with Russia. But it is likely that the occupying army, which is buying weapons, primarily offensive weapons, will most likely enter the territory of western Ukraine.
That is, Russia can collide with the NATO army in Ukraine? What should we expect in this case from the same ones from the USA and other countries of the bloc?
The United States has al-ready announced that they will not have anything to do with this, and if the Polish army enters into a military conflict with the Russian army on the trajectory of Ukraine, this will not be a conflict between NATO a-nd Russia. This is an intere-sting point that the Polish military must take into account. But the fact that Poland, in the event of a complete defeat of Ukraine, will have territorial claims against it, and they will try to realize them – this, as they say, do not go to a fortuneteller. This is almost openly discussed in the Polish expert community.
And Belarus?
The question remains open regarding Poland’s claims to western Belarus. Therefore, military interaction between Russia and Belarus is now in full swing. Belarus perfectly understands the aspirations of Poland to the Western Belarusian lands. On the other hand, Belarus emphasizes in every possible way and pretends that it will not take part in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. But something tells me that sometimes circumstances can be higher than the decisions of political bosses…
In addition to Poland, the Baltic States are also behaving quite aggressively.
The Baltics are the second line, so to speak, of exchange countries that the US and Britain have in Europe. The first line is Ukraine, which is suffering now. When Ukraine finishes suffering after its complete defeat, the second group of countries will come into play, the interests of which the United States, let’s say, will be ready to give up – this is Poland and just the Baltic countries.
The third group of countries is Germany. I remember an anecdote about a rabbi and chickens. A man came to the rabbi and said: “My chickens are dying.” The rabbi answered – do this and that. He comes the next day and says: “I have a few more chickens died.” The rabbi again advises something.
The unfortunate one comes again and again with bad news. As a result, all the chickens died. To which the rabbi: “It’s a pity, I still had so many options.”
The United States is behaving in much the same way. They are trying different things, and they have a lot of different options in order to keep the conflict in Europe. At the moment, this is what the picture looks like.
