Petr Akopov
One hundred days have passed since the beginning of the military special operation in Ukraine, and no one knows how much more lies ahead. The special operation did not become a war for Russia: there was no mobilization (and not only in terms of conscription into the army), there were no significant changes in the usual way of life (with the exception of the situation in some border areas and the closure of airports in the south of the country), the slogan “Everything for the front, everything to win.” Even the cessation of air traffic with the West did not affect the lives of the vast majority in any way: two years of quarantine due to the pandemic affected, and only a few percent of our citizens always traveled to Europe.
But this does not mean that the country is not changing: the most serious processes are underway, tectonic shifts are outlined both in self-consciousness and in the way of life. Most of them have not been formulated, let alone formalized in the form of directives or resolutions, but their predestination and inevitability are already in the air, already being felt by more and more people. Solidarity and justice, service and responsibility, independence and concentration have not yet become the main slogans of our life, but the future belongs to them, they will become the main components in the recipe for our new way of life. It will not be developed by us after the victory, but will become its main condition.
Because the special operation concerns not only Ukraine and not only relations with the West, but also Russia itself. No, this is not about repressions and the closure of the country, as our “fighters against the regime” scare: the point is the formation of a new elite, a new socio-economic structure, a new scale of values. New does not mean invented from scratch: our history – even from the beginning of the twentieth century – gives us vast ex-perience, with the correct assimilation of which we will be able to develop the “formula of Russia” that will best correspond to the values of our civilization and reveal its potential, co-mbine its uniqueness with efficiency, and the ability to mobilize with creativity.
How much time do we have for this? Years, not decades. The world is not just going through a profound transformation, it has entered a stage of heightened turbulence. It is often said that we ourselves provoked it by starting a special operation in Ukraine, but here we should not confuse the cause with the effect, and simply mix different processes.
Crimea in 2014 and Ukraine in 2022 were the result of Russia’s struggle for itself, that is, in any case, we would restore our historical unity, regardless of what the international situation would be. In 2013, Putin wanted a peaceful turn of Ukraine towards Russia – and Yanukovych agreed to suspend the signing of the agreement on European integration, thinking about joining the Eurasian Union. This option categorically did not suit the Atlanticists, who believed that in no case should even the restoration of the geopolitical unity of the Russian world be allowed. But already March 2014 showed that Russia would not allow the “kidnapping of Ukraine” by the West, and then a long struggle for the Square began.
The fact that the process of weakening the global positions of the West (and the crisis within itself) coincided with it does not mean that these two processes should be confused: the relationship between them was not of fundamental importance from the very beginning. In any case, Russia would not back down from Ukraine, because it would be a betrayal of its own people and cutting down its roots, even if the West was in a stage of growth, not decline.
And the fact that the struggle for it actually exacerbates and accelerates the collapse of the Atlantic world order is, of course, good and beneficial for us, but even if there were no Ukraine, we would just as well be working to accelerate the decline of the Anglo-Saxon global project. Because it not only meets our interests, but the only way to preserve Russia as a self-sufficient and independent state-civilization.
The combination of two processes – the return of Ukraine and the dismantling of the Atlantic world order – often raises concerns about our capabilities. Shall we get overwhelmed? All the more so because we really need an internal reform, the development of that same “formula for Russia” – and how will we pull it all out?
Of course, we can do it – and not only because there is nowhere to retreat, or because “the West will break faster.” No, our main resource is the ability to consolidate all forces for the sake of victory. So far, it has not even been used by a quarter yet, but the people are ready for it.
This readiness is evidenced even by such seemingly unrelated figures as the results of a recent poll by the Levada Center*. Among other points was the question of how long the military special operation could last. It is important to recall here: from the very beginning, we were told that the longer it goes on, the worse the mood in Russia will become – they say that the people will support a quick “small victorious war”, but no one agrees to a long and difficult conflict. And when the hostilities took on a frankly protracted character, this became an occasion for reasoning about the impending disappointment and ferment in Russian society.
And what do the results of the survey conducted at the end of May show? The vast majority understand that everything is just beginning and there are still many stages of the special operation ahead of us. Just over a third believe that it will last up to six months, two percent – “no more than a month”, nine – “from a month to two” and 26 – “from two months to six months.” And 44 percent estimate its term as more than six months, and almost half of them are sure that it will take more than a year.
What does it say? Not only that the people understand the seriousness of the situation and the tasks facing the army. But it is not for nothing that three-quarters of people believe that the people realize the need to go to the end, that is, until the complete deconstruction of the current army and the state system of Ukraine: the special operation will end with the victory of Russia. And only 15 percent believe that neither side can prevail. But the goal is not just the capitulation of Kiev, but the return of the unity of the Russian world, the gathering of the Russian land, on which Ukrainian Little Russians and Russian Great Russians live together. We have no alternative to this – and our people appreciate the scale, not the speed of what is happening.
