Sheikh Fakhar-e-Alam
Taliban takeover of Kabul has surprised the entire world.It has changed the dynamics of regional and global landscape.The events in Afghanistan have proved diplomats, geo-strategists, political pundits and scholars wrong in their calculation about the power of Afghan ruling dispensation and Afghan National Defense Security Forces (ANDSF). There is no doubt that the Taliban demonstrated superior tactical maneuvers as well as wise negotiating skills to subdue almost all the districts without shooting a single bullet. Ashraf Ghani’s government proved a wall of sand in front of Taliban. America has also openly admitted that it was not expecting such a huge and sudden changes in on-ground situation of Kabul.
Unfortunately, US has gambled away its credibility. Taliban’s lightning-fast reconquest of Afghanistan has pushed the situation, and its stakeholders, into deep trouble waters. The meltdown of the ANDSF has not only questioned the U.S. army’s training mechanism but also made it clear that any military backed nation building program is doomed to fail. As the Taliban are the sole victor of the Afghan war, they have offered peace to all the stakeholders by announcing the general amnesty. Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the head of Taliban’s political wing, has become a key figure for developing plan for next government.
Taliban have given an impression of a wise political entity. Unlike past, the international optics for the group have changed as 300 leading international channels aired the first official Press conference of Taliban spokesperson. Taliban are portraying themselves as moderate and changed from their past identity. They have shown openness on women rights, economic progress and social security. It has apparently changed the mindset of West and anti-Taliban forces as they are revisiting their policies. Recognition of new Taliban government would be a greater challenge for everyone in the world as this step would decide their future relationship with Afghanistan and fate of Taliban as well.
Thought the U.S. has faced a strategic embarrassment in Afghanistan, the only way out to get away with this humiliating situation is to muster the global support for the Taliban to be recognized by the international community. Operation Enduring Freedom started on 7 Oct ,2001 by US government, with support of its allies as a Global War on Terrorism after 11 Sep, 2001 attacks have ended after spending more than $2 trillion and the deaths of 2,448 US service members,3,846 US contractors and thousands of Afghan civilians in 20 long years. US has invested billions in fact trillions of dollars in this operation. Things have started normalizing on roads of Kabul after a long episode of chaos, barbarism and bloodshed.
From last 2 years the process of negotiation was going on between various stake holders of Afghan peace process. Countries like Pakistan, Russia and China worked sincerely in order to bring peace in the region. Apparently, present scenario may lead to a shrinking American role in this region, and perhaps even beyond. After failure of Afghan government and takeover of Taliban, US President Biden has also started defending his decision of withdrawal from Afghanistan. It is also true that Joe Biden was under great domestic pressure both from Republicans and Democrats to finally end this war. Now, Biden is trying to put this blame on previous administrations and quoting that he inherited this administrative decision.
Another side of the story is that Americans do not enjoy good reputation among Afghans and they are considered as occupiers instead of liberators. Americans also don’t want to risk any more lives or spend billions of dollars on Afghanistan as majority of local population see them with binoculars of hatred. World must understand that the Taliban are a reality and they cannot be ignored anymore. Now, the ball is in the courts of Taliban, they have to play wisely and remain extra careful, not to give the world even a single reason to segregate them diplomatically and cripple them economically. God forbid, in the worst-case scenario violence and instability may continue even after five long decades.
In this chessboard, Pakistan has shown its intent of a peaceful region in general and an Afghan owned Afghan led peace process in particular. Pakistan has been holding the position that Taliban could not be defeated militarily. Unfortunately, Americans did not paid attention to Pakistan’s advice, otherwise they could have honorably withdrawn from Afghanistan after reaching a political settlement with the Taliban. In the current milieu, Pakistan finds itself vindicated. Pakistan hopes that NDS-RAW nexus will be wiped out by the new government in power in Afghanistan and that the Taliban will not allow the Afghan soil to be used against Pakistan. Secondly, Pakistan can push back any attempt of scapegoating by US or West with the help of China, Russia and Taliban. Thirdly, Pakistan can extend CPEC through Afghanistan in central Asia and Europe. Fourthly, issues like TTP would get settled with the help of Taliban leadership. Fifthly, Afghan refugees would be repatriated and resettled as pledged by the international bodies i.e. UN and UNHRC.
(The writer is Islamabad-based veteran Journalist & PHD Media Studies fellow, an Academic Researcher & Media Analyst)
