Kerem Alkin
US President Joe Biden and his team frequently discuss why the US does not have an integrated and operational strategy to deal with China. According to the administration, contrary to the US, China has been following a highly integrated and operational approach for a long time.
Taking into consideration Beijing’s dominance in Asia, Africa and Europe with the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its economic expansion, the Biden administration describes China as a country that seriously challenges the US’ security, prosperity and values. The Biden administration tries to diminish China’s growing influence, and its focus is mainly on two specific areas. The first is to blockade China and neutralize the BRI. This mirrors what the US once did in its dispute with the Soviet Union.
In order to diminish China’s role, the US must convince the European Union, India, Turkey and Russia to distance themselves from China. The US believes that South Korea, Japan and Taiwan are already on its side.
According to Washington, the countries who have interests in the South China Sea and experience tension with China can be persuaded. That is why it sent the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier to the South China Sea. The problem actually starts here. The Biden administration hopes to coax the EU and India to its side by strengthening common interests and benefits to surround China. It will try to pressure Russia by using the “the carrot and stick” method or threatening sanctions.
Meanwhile, the US is also uncomfortable with the rapprochement between Russia and Turkey. Therefore, while pushing for all kinds of provocative moves in Syria and Libya to damage Turkey-Russia relations, the US will try to impose pressure through NATO by reminding Turkey to honor and prioritize its membership in the alliance and security partnerships.
Dialogue with Russia: The efforts of the EU, especially Germany, to keep relations with Russia at a certain level are based on the rationality that Russia can pose a great risk if it is excluded from the Atlantic wing. Germany, therefore, in-sists the US continue to pursue dialogue with Russia. The allegations on the poisoning of Alexei Navalny, a critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin, his arrest in Russia and the detentions and arrests of his supporters have also strained EU-Russia relations.
As a matter of fact, employees of the German, Polish and Swedish embassies were deported for participating in the protests.
After Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol on March 18, 2014, the EU decided to impose sanctions on Russia. The sanctions were extended for another year by EU leaders at the end of 2020, and the sale of arms to Russia was prohibited. The EU also restricted Russia’s purchase from EU countries of certain technologies used in the oil and gas sectors. Moreover, the Russian public banks are excluded from the financial sector in Europe. Although Russia has stated that it is in favor of dialogue with the EU, it seems that Russia’s relations with the bloc and the US will be quite bumpy in 2021.
China’s internal politics: Secondly, the Biden administration will directly focus on China’s internal political balances. It is understood that the US will target the fault lines in the country. For example, it may target some circles close to Chinese President Xi Jinping and the top political leaders of the Communist Party of China (CPC). The US tactic is based on the claim that the CPC’s senior leadership is far more divided over Xi’s leadership and his far-reaching passions for China than is assumed.
The Biden administration will try to persuade China’s political elitists to be part of a liberal and democratic global system led by the US That strategy aims to now allow China to create an alternative global structure under its own guidance as a global powerhouse. This could introduce a potential crisis. The US-China tension has a much higher potential to cause a second Cold War than the US-Russia tension in the coming period. The US, which defends a democratic and liberal world, will be neither democratic nor liberal to get what it wants. Here is the main question for the US to answer: When will global democracy arrive?
